WASHINGTON — The incumbent senator from Alaska is taken by surprise in a primary. A new conservative movement energizes Republicans in a furious response to a Democratic White House. Little-known insurgent candidates prepare to storm the Senate.
It is starting to feel like 1980.
While the 1994 Republican takeover of the House is regularly explored for insight into what might happen this polarized election year, parallels are emerging between the watershed Senate election of three decades ago and the campaign of 2010.
In 1980, shocked Senate Democrats lost 12 seats in a rout that ended the congressional careers of such notable lawmakers as George McGovern of South Dakota, Birch Bayh of Indiana, Frank Church of Idaho, Warren Magnuson of Washington and Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin.
Swept into office by the landslide victory of Ronald Reagan were a number of conservatives, including Jeremiah A. Denton Jr. of Alabama, Mack Mattingly of Georgia, Paula Hawkins of Florida, Steve Symms of Idaho and several others whose notion of the role of government and Congress was markedly different from those they succeeded.
They were labeled the "accidental senators," candidates who won only by virtue of an extraordinary political environment.
"It was a very weird time," recalled Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt., who narrowly won a second term that year. "A lot of those people had no idea what they were doing."
While party strategists and analysts say Republicans still face a steep climb to gain the 10 seats needed to flip control of the Senate, it is not inconceivable that Republicans could seize the majority if crucial races uniformly break their way on Nov. 2.
If they do, it is a certainty that the new membership of the Senate would include sharply conservative Republicans with a deep skepticism of government and a determination to change Washington.
The Senate of 2011 could well be the province of Rand Paul of Kentucky, Mike Lee of Utah, Sharron Angle of Nevada, Ken Buck of Colorado and perhaps Joe Miller of Alaska, who challenged Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Tuesday's primary and is in the lead as remaining absentee ballots are counted.
Thirty years ago, it was Murkowski's father, Frank, who was the beneficiary of a primary upset. He defeated Clark Gruening after Gruening eliminated the Democratic incumbent, Mike Gravel, in the primary.
Ross K. Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University who worked on Capitol Hill in the 1980s, said the Senate had seen arch-critics of the institution come and go.
"They make a lot of floor speeches and kind of stake out their favorite positions," he said. "Some small number will get the message that attacking the institution and vilifying the government is no way to accomplish anything. And after six years, you are going to have to have something to show to the voters."
