The No. 1 seed is out of the question.
We're talking Kentucky here. We're talking SEC Tournament, March 10-13 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Kentucky's 76-68 win over Florida on Saturday didn't rip the No. 1 seed from the Gators, who already clinched a share of the SEC East title.
It did put the Cats in prime position to take the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye as we head into the final week of the regular season.
The contenders: Vanderbilt is second in the SEC East at 9-5. Kentucky and Georgia are 8-6. Tennessee is 7-7.
The week's agenda: Tuesday night, Kentucky plays host to Vanderbilt. Wednesday, Georgia entertains LSU. Thursday, Tennessee travels to South Carolina.
The weekend agenda: Saturday finds Florida at Vanderbilt and Georgia at Alabama. Kentucky finishes Sunday at Tennessee.
So how can UK get the No. 2 seed?
Win out, and hope Georgia loses.
A win over Vanderbilt and a win at Tennessee clinches the No. 2 seed for the Cats, as long as Georgia loses one of its last two games.
If Kentucky and Vandy finish 10-6, the Cats and Commodores would have split head-to-head. Kentucky would be the No. 2 seed thanks to a 7-3 division record, compared with 5-5 for Vanderbilt.
If Georgia and UK win out, and Vanderbilt beats Florida on Saturday, all three would end up 10-6. Vandy would have the advantage thanks to a 3-1 head-to-head record among the three teams. Kentucky would be the No. 3 seed thanks to its 2-2 mark. Georgia would be the No. 4 seed.
Is there another way for Kentucky to be the two-seed?
As long as they beat Vanderbilt on Tuesday, the Cats have a shot at a first-round bye even if they lose at Tennessee.
For that to happen, however, the Cats would need (a) Tennessee to have lost at South Carolina on Thursday, (b) for Vandy to have lost to Florida on Saturday, and (c) for Georgia to lose out.
Under that scenario, Vanderbilt and Kentucky would be 9-7. Tennessee and Georgia would be 8-8. By splitting with Vanderbilt, the Cats would be No. 2 thanks to a 6-4 divisional record, compared to Vandy's 4-6.
If Vandy beats Florida?
A Vandy win would give UK the three-seed.
Let's say Vandy beats Florida, while Tennessee and Georgia lose one. UK, Tennessee and Georgia would be 9-7 and 2-2 head-to-head. Though UK and UT would be 6-4 in divisional play — Georgia is 4-6 — the Cats split with division-winner Florida, while the Vols were swept.
Could Tennessee rise up and snatch the No. 2 seed?
Yes, if the Vols win two and Vandy and Georgia both lose two.
Even if Georgia wins out, the Vols have the edge. Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia would all be 9-7. In head-to-head play, Tennessee would be 4-2, Vandy and Kentucky would be 3-3 and Georgia would be 2-4. Tennessee gets the No. 2 seed.
Kentucky gets the No. 3 seed, thanks to its head-to-head split with Georgia and its better divisional record.
Could Kentucky fall to the No. 4 seed? If Kentucky loses its last two games, Tennessee wins out, and Georgia loses twice, UK is the No. 4 seed.
Tennessee would be 9-7 and the No. 3 seed. Kentucky and Georgia would be tied at 8-8, but the Cats would get the No. 4 seed thanks to its a 5-5 division mark.
Kentucky could also slip to the No. 4 seed if it loses out and Tennessee loses to South Carolina.
If Georgia wins one to go 9-7, it would be the No. 3 seed. UK and Tennessee would be 8-8 overall, would have split head-to-head, and each would be 5-5 in the division. But Kentucky split with division-winner Florida, while the Vols split twice with the Commodores.
So there's a chance UK could drop to a No. 5 seed?
Yes, if Kentucky loses its last two. If Georgia wins one and Tennessee wins out, the Bulldogs and Vols would each be 9-7. Kentucky would be 8-8 and the No. 5 seed.
In other words, Kentucky's best bet is to keep winning.
