Algorithms

History has taught us not to get too caught up in early Kentucky Derby prep races, but it was hard not to get excited about what Algorithms did during his smashing victory in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes.

Start with the fact that the son of Bernardini easily took down reigning juvenile champion Hansen that day, and it only gets better from there. As was the case in his previous two starts — both wins — Algorithms relaxed just off the pace behind the leader and finished like a horse who had plenty more in the tank, receiving a Beyer Speed Figure of 105.

A half-brother to graded-stakes winners Justin Phillip and Keyed Entry, Algorithms was off until December after breaking his maiden at Belmont Park last June. The problem was with his right hock, but trainer Todd Pletcher said it did not require surgery. That early break helped Algorithms mature, and the bay colt has looked every bit the professional in his races. He has yet to go beyond a mile, but his pedigree suggests that is the least of his worries.

"This race was going to tell us where we were with him, running against the 2-year-old champion," Pletcher said after the Holy Bull. "Now he's done everything we've asked him to."

Owner: Starlight Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Oakbrook Farm

Bloodline: Bay colt by Bernardini-Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

Career record: Three starts, 3-0-0, $301,500

Last start: Won Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 29

Next start: Possible for Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26

Latest work: Scheduled to work Sunday

Potential trouble: Will he keep progressing or bounce next time out?

Alpha

When trainer Kiaran McLaughlin reflected on Alpha's victory in the Grade III Withers Stakes, the Lexington native came to a couple of cold, hard conclusions.

The son of Bernardini might not have defeated world beaters, but he demonstrated the ability necessary to turn himself into one.

Though lightly built, Alpha has some heavier expectations after his 31/4-length Withers triumph, a win that came less than a month after his season-opening victory in the Count Fleet Stakes. Though the bay colt had always shown talent, he had a tendency to act fractious in the starting gate — as he did prior to his 11th-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile — and compromise himself with awkward breaks.

Not only was Alpha better behaved entering and leaving the gate in the Withers, he was able to relax and kick on despite being pushed wide around the first turn. The Juvenile marks the only time he has been worse than second in five starts, and McLaughlin said the colt bled during that effort.

"He's a great mover, and he wants to run all day, it appears," McLaughlin said. "He seems to get better in his races, the further he goes."

Owner: Godolphin Racing

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Breeder: Darley

Bloodline: Bay colt by Bernardini-Munnaya, by Nijinsky II

Career record: Five starts, 3-1-0, $300,000

Last start: Won Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 4.

Next start: Likely for Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Started from the farthest post in the Withers, so must show he can stay cool in the gate if he draws inside.

Creative Cause

One could not ask for more out of a fantasy Kentucky Derby prospect than what Creative Cause brings to the table. By Giant's Causeway out of the Grade I-winning mare Dream of Summer, the gray colt has the bloodlines for distance and has already proved himself at a high level with his win in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes last October.

Creative Cause was third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, only a length behind, but didn't mount a stout rally considering the solid trip he got. What has been good to see is the tactical ability and consistency he has shown in each of his five starts — a key factor necessary for staying out of trouble in a 20-horse rodeo.

The form of some of the California races has been questionable, but Creative Cause's reputation got a boost when I'll Have Another, whom he soundly beat in the Grade II Best Pal Stakes, emphatically won the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes over a well-regarded bunch on Feb. 4. Creative Cause has all the potential in the world and stands as the main force facing West Coast challengers.

Owner: Heinz Steinmann

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Breeder: James C. Weigel

Bloodline: Gray or roan colt by Giant's Causeway-Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Career record: Five starts, 3-1-1, $521,000

Last start: Third in Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs on Nov. 5

Next start: Likely for the Grade II San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 19.

Latest work: 6 furlongs in 1:13.80 at Hollywood Park on Feb. 4

Potential trouble: Does he have enough acceleration to catch the better-quality rivals?

El Padrino

Next to Algorithms, El Padrino might be generating the most buzz out of trainer Todd Pletcher's early lineup. The son of Pulpit won on the undercard of the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 29, taking an allowance race that had the depth of a stakes.

When the chestnut colt broke his maiden at second asking at Belmont Park last October, it was visually stunning. After prompting the pace three-wide, El Padrino drew off under mild urging from jockey John Velazquez en route to crossing the wire 123/4 lengths in front of his next challenger in the 1-mile race.

His stakes debut was far from a disgrace as El Padrino finished third, beaten by just three quarters of a length, in the Grade II Remsen Stakes. Tactically, he appears to be a colt that could make his own race and be placed anywhere but, if there is a question mark, it's his ability to shine over a fast track.

His maiden and allowance wins have come over wet surfaces, so the slop might have moved him up in each instance. "He's still figuring things out, but he's a pretty talented horse who should continue to improve," Pletcher said.

Owner: Let's Go Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Emory Hamilton

Bloodline: Chestnut colt by Pulpit-Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Career record: Four starts, 2-1-1, $86,100

Last start: Won a 11⁄16-mile allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 29.

Next start: Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 25

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Hasn't won over a fast track.

Fed Biz

As he entered the winner's circle on Thursday afternoon, jockey Rafael Bejarano gestured to his victorious mount, Fed Biz, and declared, "This is my Derby horse!"

Though he hasn't yet faced stakes company, the bay son of Giant's Causeway inspired confidence during his season debut as he scored a 53/4-length triumph going 1 mile despite showing his immaturity while running in the Santa Anita stretch. Fed Biz broke his maiden second time out on Dec. 30 in an effort that was even better than the form shows, and the fact that he is still learning the game only speaks to how scary his raw ability might be.

He did not switch leads until late in the stretch of his allowance win, but his pedigree and effortless running style have put him at the front of trainer Bob Baffert's short list of Derby hopefuls.

"I learned a lot from him in this race," Baffert said of the colt's recent victory. "You can put him anywhere you want, and he just has a lot of natural talent."

Owner: Kaleem Shah

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables

Bloodline: Bay colt by Giant's Causeway-Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Career record: Three starts 2-0-0, $71,100

Last start: Won 1-mile allowance race at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 9.

Next start: Possible for Grade II San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10 or Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 17.

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Hasn't tested the waters against stakes company.

Gemologist

It wouldn't be Kentucky Derby season without a WinStar Farm-owned prospect on the radar. Enter Gemologist, who has already been compared to the Derby winner he is trying to emulate.

Gemologist has separated himself from all the contenders bursting from trainer Todd Pletcher's shedrow. The son of Tiznow with the massive 17-hand frame is unbeaten in three career starts and has two wins at 11⁄16 miles, both coming at Churchill Downs.

In his first graded-stakes try, Gemologist outfought Ever So Lucky to win the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club by 13/4 lengths. That race was the same one that launched WinStar's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and — like his predecessor — the plan is for Gemologist to have two prep races this spring.

Though Gemologist won his first two races on the lead, his connections say that was more a product of circumstance.

"When the quality of competition stepped up, we knew he would not be a horse that needed to be on the lead," said WinStar Farm President Elliott Walden. "The thing I like is, he is 17 hands and 1,360 pounds, and he has a little speed to be tactical."

Owner: WinStar Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey and Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust

Bloodline: Bay colt by Tiznow-Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Career record: Three starts, 3-0-0, $145,855

Last start: Won Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26.

Next start: Possible for Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 17.

Latest work: 3 furlongs in :39.88 at Palm Meadows on Feb. 5.

Potential trouble: Jury is still out on the form of the horses he beat.

Hansen

With Hansen's loss in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes came a lot of skeptics who say the son of Tapit was exposed as a one-dimensional speedster with distance limitations. After stumbling at the start, the champion gray colt dragged jockey Ramon Dominguez to the front through wicked fractions before giving way with little resistance to winner Algorithms in the stretch.

Hansen's first defeat was not without excuses, though. Trainer Mike Maker admittedly did not have the colt fully cranked, it was his first trip over a sloppy track, and the stumble at the break didn't help him to relax up front. Instead of folding up entirely, he did show mettle by holding on for second.

You don't dismiss a 2-year-old champion off one loss, and Hansen's season debut was far from a debacle. But just as there is no arguing with the raw ability he showed last season, there is also no question Hansen is going to have to prove he can rate himself if he has any hope of lasting over 10 furlongs. If the gray stunner can consistently master the art of relaxation, he is capable of some brilliant outings.

Owners: Dr. Kendall Hansen and Sky Chai Racing

Trainer: Mike Maker

Breeder: Dr. Kendall Hansen

Bloodline: Gray or roan colt by Tapit-Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Career record: Four starts, 3-1-0, $1,233,305

Last start: Second in Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 29.

Next start: Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 3

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Has got to settle on the front end if his speed is to hold up over 10 furlongs.

I'll Have Another

Even his trainer, Doug O'Neill, was stunned when I'll Have Another upset the field in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at odds of 43-1. While reviews are mixed on whether the son of Flower Ally is a legitimate contender, there is some evidence to suggest his effort on Feb. 4 was not a fluke.

In his second career start, the chestnut colt ran second to eventual Grade I Norfolk Stakes winner Creative Cause, who is widely regarded as the leading West Coast Derby hopeful. I'll Have Another was then sixth in the Grade I Hopeful in September but, unlike his three other outings in which he has been right up on the pace, he was taken well back in the field and never really engaged.

J. Paul Reddam's colt emerged from that effort with sore shins, according to assistant trainer Dennis O'Neill. In the 11⁄16-mile Robert B. Lewis, his first start since that layoff, I'll Have Another rated in second off an honest pace before sweeping to the lead off the turn and drawing off like a horse who wouldn't struggle with added ground.

"We think he's pretty darn special," Doug O'Neill said. "To do what he did after a five-month freshening was pretty incredible."

Owner: J. Paul Reddam

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Breeder: Harvey Clarke

Bloodline: Chestnut colt by Flower Alley-Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch

Career record: Four starts, 2-1-0, $184,000

Last start: Won Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 4.

Next start: Grade I Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita on April 7

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Hard to get a read on whether he's peaking at the right time or merely took advantage of the favorites running off the board.

Mr. Bowling

Of the three Kentucky Derby starters trainer Larry Jones has had thus far, two have run second, and a third went off as the race favorite. In Mr. Bowling, Jones sees a horse who might be more ahead of the curve than his past classic contenders.

The son of Istan already has five starts and earned his first graded-stakes score when he took the Grade III LeComte in gritty fashion over Z Dager at Fair Grounds on Jan. 21. Mr. Bowling ended his juvenile campaign by running third in the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill, an effort that came on the heels of his 71/4-length triumph in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park 22 days earlier.

The Mr. Bowling that won by a head in the LeComte is probably the truer version because, Jones said, the dark bay colt tends to do only as much as needed.

"What was uncharacteristic for him was winning with as much margin as he did in the Dover Stakes because, in workouts and everything else, he just kind of goes along with the other horses," Jones said. "He's got a lot of good qualities to him and, when you look back and compare him to Hard Spun and Friesan Fire ... Mr. Bowling is a little more accomplished than both of those were at this time. How much more he can pick the game up, I don't know, but we're seeing a nice steady improvement in him."

Owner: Brereton Jones

Trainer: Larry Jones

Breeder: Brereton Jones

Bloodline: Dark bay colt by Istan-Goldilock's Bear, by Irish Tower

Career record: Five starts, 3-0-1, $201,048

Last start: Won Grade III LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 21.

Next start: Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 25

Latest work: TBA

Potential trouble: Whether he is fast enough to hang with the best contenders is in question.

Motor City

One of the horses without much hype on the trail actually has one of the stronger foundations for being a classic contender.

Lantern Hill Farm's homebred Motor City is not only the son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense but is trained by Ian Wilkes, former assistant to Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Carl Nafzger. The bay gelding signaled his promise when he ran third to Shared Property in the Grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity last September but then threw in what looked to be a disappointing eighth-place finish in the Grade I Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.

Shortly after that outing, it was discovered Motor City had pulled and bent back a shoe at the start — which Lantern Hill's Suzi Shoemaker equated to running with a high-heeled shoe on one foot and a sneaker on the other. In his subsequent outing, the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in October, Motor City emulated his sire's late-to-first style when he rallied to take the 1-mile test by three-quarters of a length.

"The horse, from what I've seen, is a more mature horse right now," Wilkes said.

Owner: Lantern Hill Farm

Trainer: Ian Wilkes

Breeder: Lantern Hill Farm

Bloodline: Bay gelding by Street Sense-Shawgatny, by Danzig Connection

Career record: Five starts, 2-1-1, $99,183

Last start: Won Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Oct. 30.

Next start: TBA

Latest work: 4 furlongs in :49.88 at Palm Meadows on Feb. 6.

Potential trouble: Hasn't won against top company yet.

Out of Bounds

As physically impressive as Out of Bounds is, it's the colt's mental fortitude that has won over his connections. Darley Stable's homebred has made only three starts since debuting in October but has looked very much the professional runner, especially during his win in the Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 7.

Like his dam, 2001 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine, Out of Bounds is a large-bodied, long-striding horse whose grind-it-out style appears suited for longer distances. The son of Discreet Cat swept up three wide in the Sham Stakes and kept giving jockey Garrett Gomez more each time he asked before wearing down Secret Circle to win by half a length.

Out of Bounds doesn't come from the soundest bloodlines — something his large frame might test — but he hasn't put a foot wrong yet. The chestnut colt is figuring out how to dig in and fight, which will serve him well as the quality of his competition rises.

"He's come around mentally, as well as physically, and sometimes it takes a while for both to catch up," trainer Eoin Harty said.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Eoin Harty

Breeder: Darley

Bloodline: Chestnut colt by Discreet Cat-Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song

Career record: Three starts, 2-0-0, $87,900

Last start: Won Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 7.

Next start: Grade II San Felipe at Santa Anita Park on March 10.

Latest work: 5 furlongs in 1.03:00 at Hollywood Park on Feb. 6

Potential trouble: Sire was more of a miler, so there are distance questions in his pedigree.

Union Rags

He might have lost the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 2-year-old championship to Hansen, but Union Rags is ahead of most of his classmates in terms of respect.

Despite falling a head short in the Juvenile, a common belief was that Union Rags delivered the more impressive effort that day — traveling wide throughout the 11⁄16-mile test and regaining his momentum after veering out in the stretch. The bay son of Dixie Union came into the Breeders' Cup as the favorite having won the Grade I Champagne Stakes by 51/4 lengths after looking like a beaten horse trapped behind foes in midstretch.

But it's Union Rags' versatility that has been most impressive in each of his three wins. When he captured the Grade II Saratoga Special by 71/4 lengths, the bay colt prompted the pace in the 61/2-furlong test — a drastic shift from his maiden win when he settled off the pace in seventh before advancing steadily to win by 13/4 lengths.

"He likes to do his job, and he's a very willing horse," trainer Michael Matz said. "He makes things easy on himself."

Owners: Chadds Ford Stable (Phyllis Wyeth)

Trainer: Michael Matz

Breeder: Phyllis Wyeth

Bloodline: Bay colt by Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West

Career record: Four starts, 3-1-0, $858,800

Last start: Second in Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs on Nov. 5.

Next start: Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26

Latest work: 4 furlongs in :48.67 at Palm Meadows on Feb. 6.

Potential trouble: Needs to put the immaturity he showed in the Breeders' Cup behind him and keep moving forward in his form.