Breeders' Cup: Handicapping Saturday's races

Herald-Leader Racing WriterNovember 2, 2012 

JUVENILE TURF

$1,000,000, 2-year-old and up, 1 mile

Post time: 2:50 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Summit County C. Nakatani 30-1

2 Artigiano L. Dettori 8-1

3 George Vancouver R. Moore 8-1

4 Gervinho R. Bejarano 15-1

5 Fantastic Moon K. Fallon 12-1

6 Dundonnell J. Doyle 4-1

7 Brown Almighty K. Desormeaux 20-1

8 Balance the Books J. Leparoux 8-1

9 Noble Tune R. Dominguez 6-1

10 Joha J. Castellano 6-1

11 Dry Summer J. Talamo 10-1

12 I'm BoundtoscoreS. Rook 20-1

13 Know More G. Gomez 8-1

14 Lines of Battle R. Hughes 12-1

15 Rising Legend J. Rosario 20-1

European-based horses have taken three of the previous five runnings of the race and this year's leading contender is Juddmonte homebred and Group III winner Dundonnell. Chad Brown trainee Balance the Books owns a win over Grade I winner Joha and enters off a victory in the Grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

$1,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 7 furlongs

Post time: 3:35 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Teddy's Promise J. Talamo 20-1

2 Belle of the Hall I. Ortiz, Jr. 20-1

3 Dust and Diamonds J. Leparoux 9-2

4 Strike the Moon J. Lezcano 30-1

5 Rumor M. Smith 20-1

6 Turbulent Descent J. Velazquez 5-1

7 Great Hot E. Maldonado 30-1

8 Musical Romance J. Leyva 4-1

9 Groupie Doll R. Maragh 1-1

10 Switch G. Gomez 12-1

Fred and Buff Bradley's homebred Groupie Doll may be the closest thing to a lock on this year's entire Breeders' Cup program. The daughter of Bowman's Band has been training out of her skin and exercise rider Jada Schlenk said the multiple Grade I winner feels even better over the Santa Anita track than she did at Churchill.

DIRT MILE

$1,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 1 mile

Post time: 4:14 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Rail Trip J. Valdivia, Jr. 10-1

2 Delegation P. Husbands 12-1

3 Jersey Town J. Castellano 4-1

4 John Scott V. Espinoza 12-1

5 Fed Biz J. Talamo 6-1

6 Shackleford R. Dominguez 2-1

7 Emcee A. Garcia 5-2

8 Tapizar C. Nakatani 12-1

9 Second City M. Gutierrez 30-1

Another salty edition of this race with Grade I winners Shackleford and Emcee the main targets and the veteran Rail Trip looming. The 1-mile distance is probably Shackleford's best game while Emcee will be going two turns for the first time.

TURF SPRINT

1,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 612 furlongs

Post time: 4:57 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 California Flag J. Talamo 6-1

2 Camp Victory J. Leparoux 10-1

3 Great Mills R. Bejarano 20-1

4 Tale of a Champion T. Baze 30-1

5 Next Question R. Dominguez 10-1

6 Upgrade R. Maragh 30-1

7 Renee'sgotzip G. Gomez 8-1

8 Great Attack J. Rosario 10-1

9 Bridgetown J. Velazquez 9-2

10 Corporate Jungle J. Castellano 6-1

11 Mizdirection M. Smith 20-1

12 Chosen MiracleM. Garcia 15-1

13 Unbridled's Note C. Nakatani 5-1

14 StarspangledbannerJ. O'Brien 10-1

15 ae-Global Power P. Valenzuela 30-1

16ae-Starspangled HeatC. Nakatani 30-1

California Flag flamed out in the last two runnings of this race at Churchill Downs, but the hero of the 2009 edition of the Turf Sprint is a different horse at Santa Anita, scoring six of his 11 career wins over the track. Despite his long-shot morning-line odds, Mizdirection is a live contender having not missed the board in 11 career starts.

JUVENILE

$2,000,000, 2-year-olds, 1116 miles

Post time: 5:36 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Title Contender M. Garcia 6-1

2 Speak Logistics A. Serpa 8-1

3 He's Had Enough M. Gutierrez 20-1

4 Shanghai Bobby R. Napravik 2-1

5 Monument J. Talamo 12-1

6 Dynamic Sky L. Contreras 12-1

7 Capo Bastone J. Rosario 15-1

8 Fortify R. Dominguez 9-2

9 Power Broker R. Bejarano 5-2

Assuming the lack of Lasix is a non-factor, this appears to be a two-horse showdown between Grade I winners Power Broker and Shanghai Bobby. Power Broker won the Frontrunner Stakes over this track at 11⁄16 miles on Sept. 29 while Shanghai Bobby has been sublime in taking all four of his career starts including the Grade I Champagne Stakes.

TURF

$3,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 112 miles

Post time: 6:18 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Point of Entry J. Velazquez 3-1

2 Turbo Compressor J. Bravo 15-1

3 St Nicholas Abbey J. O'Brien 7-2

4 Treasure Beach J. Spencer 12-1

5 Shareta C. Lanerie 7-2

6 Cogito L. Dettori 30-1

7 Little Mike R. Dominguez 12-1

8 Kindergarden Kid J. Leparoux 30-1

9 Dullahan J. Rosario 12-1

10 Optimizer J. Court 20-1

11 Slim Shadey G. Gomez 10-1

12 TrailblazerY. take 6-1

St Nicholas Abbey scored last year in this spot for trainer Aidan O'Brien but has only one win, the Group I Coronation Cup, on his résumé this year while knocking heads with the likes of Frankel, Snow Fairy and Danedream. Little Mike and Dullahan are trainer Dale Romans' 1-2 punch, but multiple Grade I winner Point of Entry has been the best grass runner in the country.

SPRINT

$1,500,000, 3-year-olds and up, 6 furlongs

Post time: 6:58 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Sum of the Parts J. Leparoux 20-1

2 Jimmy Creed G. Gomez 6-1

3 Gantry J. Castellano 10-1

4 Coil M. Garcia 5-1

5 Justin Phillip R. Bejarano 20-1

6 Fast Bullet J. Talamo 12-1

7 The Lumber Guy J. Velazquez 6-1

8 Capital Account D. Flores 8-1

9 Trinniberg W. Martinez 15-1

10 Smiling Tiger R. Dominguez 12-1

11 Amazombie M. Smith 4-1

12 Hamazing DestinyJ. Rosario 12-1

13 Poseidon's Warrior I. Ortiz, Jr. 15-1

14 Boxer des Rues M. Gutierrez 30-1

A decidedly wide-open affair as evidenced by the fact defending champ Amazombie is only 4-1 as the morning-line favorite. Trinniberg rarely throws in a bad run while winging away on the lead and, for a race that has been prone to bombs, look to Smiling Tiger as a sleeper.

MILE

$2,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 1 mile

Post time: 7:40 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Mr. Commons B. Blanc 12-1

2 Wise Dan J. Velazquez 9-5

3 Obviously J. Talamo 6-1

4 Jeranimo G. Gomez 15-1

5 Animal Kingdom R. Bejarano 8-1

6 Excelebration J. O'Brien 2-1

7 Willcox Inn J. Graham 30-1

8 Suggestive Boy M. Smith 15-1

9 Moonlight Cloud T. Jamet 6-1

In what figures to be the best race of Saturday's card, multiple Grade I winner Wise Dan can cement his already-stellar reputation if he takes down a bunch that features Group I winner Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud along with the sneaky-good Obviously. There might not be a horse on the grounds who looks better than Wise Dan. If he doesn't win, it's not because he wasn't dead fit.

CLASSIC

$5,000,000, 3-year-olds and up, 114 miles

Post time: 8:30 p.m.

Pp Horse Jockey Odds

1 Pool Play M. Mena 30-1

2 Flat out J. Rosario 5-1

3 Alpha R. Dominguez 20-1

4 Fort Larned B. Hernandez, Jr. 5-1

5 Game On Dude R. Bejarano 9-5

6 Brilliant Speed J. Alvarado 20-1

7 Handsome Mike M. Gutierrez 30-1

8 Nonios M. Pedroza 20-1

9 Richard's Kid G. Gomez 12-1

10 Ron the Greek J. Lezcano 6-1

11 Mucho Macho Man M. Smith 8-1

12 To Honor and ServeJ. Velazquez 8-1

What this race lacks in sexy hype, it makes up for in sheer depth. Mucho Macho Man, Nonios and Handsome Mike are the only three in the 12-horse field without Grade I wins to their credit and trainer Bill Mott has a formidable trio in Flat Out, To Honor and Serve and Ron the Greek. The one everyone will have to catch, though, is multiple Grade I winner Game On Dude, who is unbeaten at Santa Anita.

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