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Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008

Mark Story's countdown to kickoff

Twenty things to watch, plus a Cats-CArds prediction

The campaign for the Governor's Cup:

21. Steve Kragthorpe. Win today and the negative karma that has engulfed his Louisville tenure lifts as suddenly as a late-morning fog.

20. Rich Brooks. Win today and the once widely maligned Brooks takes a giant step toward UK's historically elusive third straight winning season.

19. Home-field advantage. Hasn't been much of an advantage in the modern Governor's Cup series — road teams are 8-6 (though UK is 2-3 in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium).

18. Being favored. Hasn't been much of an advantage in the modern Governor's Cup series — teams favored to win are only 8-6 straight up. This year, Louisville is favored by 31/2 points.

17. Mike Hartline. Can join Jeff Speedy (1994) and Tim Couch (1997) as the only Kentucky starting quarterbacks to beat Louisville in their first start in the modern UK-U of L rivalry.

16. The Kentucky offense. Lost 41.1 percent of last season's rushing yardage, 99.1 percent of last season's passing yardage, and 68.3 percent of last season's pass receptions.

15. The Louisville offense. Lost 54.8 percent of last season's rushing yardage, 98.1 percent of last season's passing yardage, and 79.4 percent of last season's pass receptions.

14. Louisville position most on the spot: Linebacker. The Cardinals are slated to start three players — two junior-college transfers and a true freshman — who have never played in a major college game before.

13. Kentucky position most on the spot: Offensive line. With three starters back, UK's front is being counted on to open holes to allow a talented running back corps to take pressure off an unproven quarterback.

12. Lones Seiber. If it comes down to place-kicking, UK's Seiber has the experience — but his erratic track record should make Blue backers nervous.

11. Chris Philpott. If it comes down to place-kicking, U of L true freshman Philpott has no experience — which has to make Louisville fans nervous.

10. One. Number of games Louisville lost at home in Bobby Petrino's four years as Cardinals head coach (22-1).

9. Two. Number of games Louisville lost at home (Syracuse and Utah) in Steve Kragthorpe's first year as Cardinals head coach (4-2).

8. Trent Guy. Hard not to feel good for the U of L receiver who is coming back to play after being shot in the lower back outside a Louisville nightclub in July.

7. Kentucky defense. After an off-season of hype, it's time to put up.

6. Louisville defense. After an off-season of scorn, it's time to put up.

5. Louisville high school football. Stands tall Sunday — UK may start five Derby City products (if Maurice Grinter gets the nod at tight end) and U of L will start five.

4. Lexington high school football. Not exactly towering like Yao Ming. Only one Lexington product, U of L tight end Pete Nochta (Tates Creek), is listed first string for either Kentucky or Louisville.

3. Curtis Pulley. If he watches the game on TV from Tallahassee (home of his new school, Florida A&M), ought to have a really sick feeling in his stomach.

2. Losing this game ensures doom. Actually, it doesn't. Four times during the modern Governor's Cup series (1994, '98, 2002 and last year), Louisville has lost to Kentucky but still won at least six games. Twice (1999 and 2006), UK has lost to U of L but gone to bowl games.

1. My guess: Kentucky 28, Louisville 27.