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Betting totals are down 13.5 percent at Keeneland this spring, and some are saying that's because it's too difficult to pick a winner on the fairly new synthetic track.
"It's not as easy as it once was," agreed Keeneland President and CEO Nick Nicholson. "And I'm not going to criticize the critics. I understand their frustration."
A wide-ranging variety of people have been voicing opinions on Keeneland's betting drop and whether it relates to the mystery of betting Polytrack.
The nation's leading trainer, Todd Pletcher, suggested this week that Keeneland's drop in betting might "reflect that the big bettors don't have confidence in the surface."
Pletcher said he is concerned because "ultimately we all know that that's what generates the purses and we need their confidence in the surface for it to be successful."
Participants on an Internet chat site called the Derby List, perhaps the longest-running and best known site focused on thoroughbred racing, have been at odds with one another over betting Polytrack and whether it might be the reason Keeneland's handle is down.
At Keeneland yesterday, trainer Dale Romans said some of his clients have told him they don't feel comfortable betting Keeneland races because they don't know how to read the synthetic surface.
"I'm not so sure it would be a problem if it were longer than a two-week meet, so they can get a gauge on who's running well," Romans said.
With two days left in the spring meet (15 racing days spread over three weeks), the total betting figures, including simulcast wagering from all sources, look like this:
Betting on Keeneland from all North American sources had reached $125,547,401 Wednesday, down from the record meet in spring 2007 when the total through the comparable Wednesday had reached $135,676,654.
But the 2007 numbers were the totals from 13 days of racing because Easter fell during the meet and racing was not held that day.
This year, Easter was before the meet opened, thus racing did not take a holiday. When the betting for the comparable Sunday this year ($8,198,504) is subtracted from the 2008 total, the numbers look even worse: $117,348,897.
Though Nicholson said the track might be taking a financial hit while bettors try to figure out betting Polytrack, he cautioned that this probably is not the only reason betting totals are down.
"I think it's a mix," he said.
Nicholson pointed out that for the first two Wednesdays of this meet, Californians at Santa Anita were not betting on Keeneland racing because the California track was dark on those days. This Wednesday, Keeneland received bets from California for the first time when Hollywood Park opened.
Another factor in the handle drop could be the economy, Nicholson said. Additionally, not all wagering sites are on-board with Keeneland, including TwinSpires.com, the account wagering site owned by Churchill Downs, Inc.
Nicholson said some betting sites tied into Keeneland have shown an upsurge this spring, topped by TVG account wagering.
Canada is slightly up, but sites across the United States, excluding Kentucky, are down. Kentucky is slightly down.
One other factor might be discouraging bettors from embracing Keeneland racing, according to Nicholson. He called it the Pyro factor. Pyro was the odds-on favorite (and then-favorite for the Kentucky Derby) who ran 10th in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 12.
"Some of this talk, I think, is because Pyro did not run as well when he was favorite," Nicholson said. "That's a piece of it, too, especially if people bet Pyro and maybe wheeled him in some superfectas."
With two days remaining in this meet, Nicholson said he hopes that an attendance record will be set or equalled, and that betting numbers will be up some.
Following the meet, he said, Keeneland will try to determine why the numbers have been down. If Polytrack indeed has discouraged large-money bettors from wagering on Keeneland, the CEO said, he hopes to find a solution.
He said Keeneland's task will be to continue looking for more information to give bettors and to determine what is relevant for helping them make decisions on Polytrack.
BLOG: GALLOPING OUT by Maryjean Wall