Posted on Thu, Apr. 10, 2008

'Kentucky Bear' bargain at 50-1

Even 10-1 odds too high for trainer

By Maryjean Wall

MWALL@HERALD-LEADER.COM

Watch out because this bear of a horse might grab you by surprise in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

We refer to Kentucky Bear, at 50-1. Don't let the odds scare you. The jockey and trainer are amused at the morning-line number assigned to the Bear in a field of 12 drawn for Saturday and led by even-money favorite Pyro.

"He looks like a bargain at 50-1. He's a bargain at 10-1," said Reade Baker, who trains Kentucky Bear for Bear Stables Ltd. of Danny Dion.

Jockey Jamie Theriot worked Kentucky Bear for the first time recently and got off the colt saying, "Wow!" Theriot is over the moon about the Bear.

"Fifty-to-one is way over too much for him," Theriot exclaimed.

Kentucky Bear is one of two 50-1 shots (Stone Bird is the other) among the 11 who will challenge Pyro, undefeated this season. The 84th Blue Grass field is the largest in 25 years.

While Pyro will take a lot of money from fans who consider him unbeatable, Kentucky Bear's connections do not see their colt as outclassed, outgamed or outrun.

There is always that chance that Pyro has a weakness as yet undefined.

One question is how he will race on Polytrack. He has worked on it at Keeneland but never run a race on it. The two situations are different.

The second choice in the morning line, Cool Coal Man, is another one with a possible chink in his armor: It will be nearly seven weeks since he last raced, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

The co-third choices, Big Truck (Tampa Bay Derby winner) and Visionaire (Gotham Stakes winner), are nice horses. But after those two, it's anybody's race with three 15-1 choices.

Theriot said he doesn't even have to psyche himself up to ride this 50-1 shot. He has been excited since working Kentucky Bear and says "we have a very good shot."

It began with one of those trainer phone calls of the type jockeys get every day.

"Reade called and said, 'I think you're going to really like this colt,' " Theriot recalled. Well, maybe.

Then Theriot got off Kentucky Bear after the workout. He couldn't wait for the Blue Grass.

Baker, the Canadian who trains Kentucky Bear, said the colt is much better than his running lines look. He won his first start at 10-1 odds by 61/2 lengths. The second start was what will throw off the bettors.

On that occasion, Kentucky Bear finished seventh behind Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth. It didn't look good.

"The public, unless they watch the replay, they don't know he bled (in his respiratory system) and that he ran down (through the skin) on his heels," Baker said. "But that was a single incident. I'm pretty confident he won't do it again."

One of the reasons for coming north to Keeneland was the cooler weather, which should be sure to help a horse who has gone through respiratory bleeding, Baker said.

But like Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear's last race was nearly seven weeks ago.

The time elapsed between races is even more interesting with Cowboy Cal: It's been almost two months for him.

As for Pyro, "We'll have to run against him in three weeks," Baker said. So why not now?

Theriot said he's convinced "the horse has a lot of ability. All we need is for him to show up."

And a little racing luck. You never know when you'll get the luck.

"As they say, if you ain't in it, you can't win it," Theriot said. "I'm really excited. I think we have a very good shot."