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When the Democratic presidential primary finally ends, the nominee and party officials may have a hard time bringing Kentucky Democrats back together for the general election, according to a new Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll.
One third of likely Democratic primary voters surveyed say they would either back Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain in the general election or stay at home on Election Day if their candidate doesn't win the nomination. Of those, 28 percent said they'd vote for McCain, while 5 percent said they wouldn't vote.
The telephone poll -- conducted by Research 2000 of Olney, Md., between May 7 and May 9 -- has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Supporters of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton were more willing to cross party lines to support McCain if Clinton is not the Democrats' candidate. Nearly a third of Clinton backers polled said they'd choose to vote Republican over pulling the lever this fall for Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.
"One thing the Democratic Party keeps saying is it wants to make Kentucky a blue state," said Creasa Reed, a 59-year-old Clinton supporter from Lexington. "I would rather see Kentucky red than wrong."
Obama, however, appears to have the inside track to the nomination as he leads Clinton in votes, delegates and states won in the primary.
Reed, a Democrat who says she's voted Republican before, said she's most concerned about Obama's level of experience after only being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004.
"I'd like to see him as a vice presidential candidate," said Reed, who is an advocate for the disabled. As for McCain, Reed said she disagrees with his position on economic issues and the war in Iraq but believes he would be better suited than Obama to handle national security.
A plurality of 600 likely Kentucky general election voters surveyed in a separate poll picked McCain as the best of the three to handle the threat of terrorism, as well as the continued war in Iraq. McCain also leads both Clinton and Obama by double digits in a state that contains more than two registered Democrats for every Republican.
If Clinton were to snare the Democratic nomination, 19 percent of Democrats supporting Obama said they'd back McCain over Clinton in the fall while 11 percent said they'd stay home rather than decide between those two. Another 11 percent weren't sure what they'd do.
About a quarter of black Kentucky Democrats surveyed say they will stay home rather than vote for Clinton or McCain in the fall election.
That could be an election-deciding problem for the party nationally, said Saundra Ardrey, head of the political science department at Western Kentucky University.
"A Democrat can't win without the support of the African-American community," she said in an interview earlier this month. "The turnout has to be high and the support has to be at least 85 to 90 percent. The African-American community may not vote for McCain but they might not come out to vote at all."
