New growth model

By Knox van Nagell

Best estimates say that an additional 60,000 people will call Lexington home by 2030.

So one of the central questions facing our community is not if we grow, but how we grow—and can we do it in a way that positions our built, natural and social environments for success in today's rapidly changing world?

National and local market studies shed light on this complex issue. Our demographics are changing along with our housing preferences — determining how our community will look and function in the future. The single-family detached home in the 'burbs has become less and less the housing unit of choice, when other options are available and affordable.

This summer, the Lexington-Fayette County Government completed — with the help of several national and local real-estate planning firms — a housing market study that identified our demographic trends, available land for development and preferred housing types and needs over the next 20 years.

The study's major recommendations and findings were to:

1. Immediately address a shortage of quality housing for those with the most moderate incomes. Our housing market is grossly under-supplied for homes below $85,000 and for rentals below $500 a month.

2. Plan for longer-term growth in demand for higher density product — such as condominiums, town homes and small-lot single-family units — in all areas within the Urban Service Boundary. There are roughly 12,750 acres inside the boundary potentially available for redevelopment, contingent on community planning and policy decisions. This number includes approximately 8,000 acres identified by the Division of Planning as vacant, blighted or under-utilized.

3. Create a regulatory environment that will facilitate well-designed, higher-density, mixed-use development. Forty percent of Lexington's current market prefers to live inside New Circle Road. This percentage is growing, as market perceptions evolve, transportation costs increase and good infill housing is built.

Nearly 70 percent of Lexington homes contain just one or two people. In 2007, roughly 10 percent of Lexington's population was 65 or older.

That number will continue to grow, making "aging in place" housing an increasing market.

In light of these facts, it's apparent that Fayette County is primed for an innovative growth model — one that incentivizes developers to build well-designed, mixed-use and affordable housing units in our urban core and suburbs, while preserving our finite Bluegrass landscape on the perimeter for its branding, quality of life and economic development value.

To succeed, the study identified several needed initiatives, including:

■ Support local affordable housing programs, such as the efforts of local non-profit housing providers, the affordable housing trust fund, etc.

■ Implement changes to local land-use and zoning regulations, such as standards for site design, signage, streetscape and parks and open spaces.

■ Explore creating mixed-use districts or overlays that provide architectural guidelines for redevelopment or new development in targeted areas.

Pointedly, the study also reveals that Lexington's potential redevelopment areas could accommodate up to approximately 14,500 new residential units under current land-use plans — and yet we will probably need 19,800 new residential units by 2030.

Therefore, increased density, and regional partnerships are key strategies in satisfying our long-term growth demands.

But will leadership step up to the plate? Can we meaningfully respond to what our market is telling us, and implement targeted affordable housing and infill policies that make it easier for developers to do the right thing, without compromising our cityscape and iconic Bluegrass brand?

Lexingtonians say "yes." In the recently completed Destination 2040 Project, the community articulated its "Physical Growth" vision as:

"We will protect and promote the signature rural landscape ... continue the momentum to bring about a truly vibrant downtown, and ensure that all urban and suburban neighborhoods flourish. Acknowledging that the future will bring growth in population ... [w]e will use proactive, cooperative regional planning to address change ... while appropriately balancing the community's needs."

This is a tall order. However, we must follow suit.

As proved by sociologist Richard Florida in his book, Rise of the Creative Class, and countless other experts, we cannot afford to look the other way and advance poorly designed sprawl development. It not only fails our demographic market, but our natural, social and economic promise.

Now is the time for action, and let's get to work.