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Saturday, Nov. 07, 2009

Analysis: Chemistry test awaits

1. This team has returning players who were beaten down last season and seemed to become dispirited. There are also heralded newcomers seemingly brimming with confidence. How stable is this mix?

Short answer: Winning brings stability. Losing invites volatility.

Longer answer: New Coach John Calipari has spoken of elevating the veterans' self-esteem while deflating the newcomers, who he likes to joke think they "poop ice cream." In the last two seasons, UK lost 27 games. That's more than any two-season period in the program's history except for the 33 losses in the probation-saddled seasons of 1988-89 and 1989-90. This might be a good thing going forward because the veterans should be so hungry to succeed that they see individual glory as a luxury. Senior Ramon Harris acknowledged wanting to show he's better than previously demonstrated. But he's always been a selfless contributor. The positions of point guard and center will test Calipari's ability to instill joie de vivre. At each spot, he has two ballyhooed freshmen vying for playing time.

2. The only consistent perimeter shooter from last season is gone. Will the departure of Jodie Meeks to the NBA prove impossible to overcome?

Here's a safe observation: Meeks' sharpshooting will not be easy to replace. His 23.7-point scoring average was UK's highest since Dan Issel in 1969-70. He also shattered the school record with 117 three-pointers in a season. His 40.6 percent accuracy from beyond the arc was the seventh-best in school history. The returning players made 28.1 percent of their three-point shots last season (45-for-160). Barring vast improvement, the burden falls to newcomers. Neither John Wall nor Eric Bledsoe came billed as sharpshooters. Daniel Orton and DeMarcus Cousins are big men. Freshman Jon Hood shot well for Madisonville High, and sophomore Darnell Dodson comes with a reputation for marksmanship, but neither has played a major-college game.

3. Is the dribble-drive offense a trendy gimmick or basketball's version of the spread offense?

Its inventor, Vance Walberg, told Sports Illustrated in 2008 that he answered about 300 calls a year from people wanting more information about the dribble-drive offense. Another devotee has produced a set of tapes explaining the offense. If it's a gimmick, it's a gimmick spreading quickly throughout the basketball landscape. Calipari had no reason to switch to a gimmick in 2003. He had already wowed college basketball by guiding Massachusetts to the Final Four and, by then, had Memphis headed in that direction. The offense's emphasis on driving and dishing has been around for a long time. During a tour of Japan and Hong Kong in the 1980s, then-UK Coach Eddie Sutton marveled at how international teams used the drive-and-dish to set up three-point shots. Walberg originally called the offense Attack-attack-attack-skip-attack-attack. Calipari coined the more catchy dribble-drive. Like any system, it works best when run by talented players, and Kentucky has them. Calipari is no purist. He's been guilty of such heresies as passing the ball around the perimeter or setting a screen for the dribbler. So apparently he won't stubbornly put his system above all else.

4. How will Patrick Patterson, Orton and Cousins play together?

The three big men do not appear to be clones. Each brings his own set of skills to the mix, which should allow them to complement rather than inhibit. Yet each is versatile enough to play in a traditional low-post power position or face the basket. Calipari says Patterson will be drilled as if he's a guard but, when the game's on the line, he'll be at the low post. Orton would seem to be more a power player, although he looked comfortable shooting from the perimeter. Cousins is big enough and skilled enough to contribute anywhere on the floor. Calipari has thought out loud of a Twin Towers alignment. But it's hard to imagine. As with any position, the player with the hot hand in a given game will probably be freed — or "unleashed," as Calipari likes to put it — to contribute for an extended period. Plus, Patterson's experience and know-how will mandate his presence on the floor.