Story predicts 6-6 record for Cats

By Mark Story / mstory@herald-leader.com

The University of Kentucky has not gone to three straight bowl games since Bear Bryant took the Cats to the Orange, Sugar and Cotton after the 1949-51 seasons.

Coming off back-to-back Music City Bowl wins, the question for 2008 is whether UK will go back-to-back-to-back or will slip back?

at Louisville

Back-to-back-to-back: UK now has the advantage in both program momentum and stability over its in-state rival. Just wish I was a little more confident about Kentucky’s passing attack.

Slip back: U of L has a desperate coach and the more experienced quarterback. In an early-season rivalry game, that combination alone could spell v-i-c-t-o-r-y.

My guess: Kentucky 28, Louisville 27.

vs. Norfolk State

Back-to-back-to-back: Kentucky’s program should have advanced to the stage that no team from the Football Championship Subdivision — even one with 16 returning starters from an 8-3 team plus a quarterback transfer from UConn — is a threat.

Slip back: A post-Louisville letdown by UK would seem the Spartans’ only realistic hope.

My guess: Kentucky 35, Norfolk State 13.

vs. Middle Tennessee

Back-to-back-to-back: MTSU lost a home game to Western Kentucky in 2007. The Blue Raiders should not have any chance in a road game against an SEC foe.

Slip back: Middle’s aptly named quarterback Dwight Dasher is a fleet scrambler — and we all know what mobile QBs tend to do against Kentucky.

My guess: Kentucky 38, Middle Tennessee 21.

vs. Western Kentucky

Back-to-back-to-back: How do you know that Mitch Barnhart and Rich Brooks believe Kentucky football is on firm footing? They would never have risked scheduling WKU if they thought there was any significant chance of losing.

Slip back: In what will be their game of the year, the Toppers and their impressive young coach, David Elson, are not coming to Lexington to lay down.

My guess: Kentucky 31, Western Kentucky 16.

at Alabama

Back-to-back-to-back: UK has won its last two SEC openers after losing 18 in a row. Making it three in a row at Alabama (where Kentucky is 0-19-1 all-time) would be an emphatic statement of improvement.

Slip back: Alabama lost six games last year by a combined 36 points. I expect a big step forward in Nick Saban’s second year.

My guess: Alabama 28, Kentucky 14.

vs. South Carolina

Back-to-back-to-back: If Kentucky is ever to ascend the ladder in the SEC East, South Carolina is a team UK has to start beating. The Cats are 0-for-the-2000s (eight straight losses) against the Gamecocks.

Slip back: What does Steve Spurrier have in common with the commonwealth of Virginia? Before 1792, Virginia owned what is now Kentucky. Starting in 1990, the Head Ball Coach has owned Kentucky — to the tune of 15-0.

My guess: South Carolina 24, Kentucky 19.

vs. Arkansas

Back-to-back-to-back: After going 0-4 against Bobby Petrino when he was at Louisville, you think Rich Brooks isn’t aching for payback? The good news for Brooks is, on paper, this looks like the weakest team Petrino will have led against UK.

Slip back: Petrino might be a Cat killer, but he inherits only 11 returning starters, none of whom are named Darren McFadden.

My guess: Kentucky 24, Arkansas 21.

at Florida

Back-to-back-to-back: UK was competitive for a half against Florida two years ago in Gainesville and competitive to the final buzzer last season in Commonwealth Stadium. When you’ve lost 21 in a row to a foe, sustained competitiveness is at least a start.

Slip back: Urban Meyer is 23-3 as a head coach with more than one week to prepare — and Florida is off the week before UK visits.

My guess: Florida 38, Kentucky 17.

at Mississippi State

Back-to-back-to-back: This is another team UK has to beat to succeed long term. Brooks is 3-2 against MSU. The stretch that’s seen Kentucky win 13 of its last 19 games began two years ago with a victory in Starkville.

Slip back: The Bulldogs have eight starters back from the defense that forced six UK turnovers in the second half of last year’s upset win in Commonwealth.

My guess: Mississippi State 21, Kentucky 20.

vs. Georgia

Back-to-back-to-back: In two games against UK, Matthew Stafford has thrown a combined five interceptions. Which helps explain why the Cats beat the Dawgs in Lexington two years ago and had ample opportunities to pull the upset in Athens last season.

Slip back: In a matchup that falls between Florida and Auburn on their schedule, the No. 1 challenge for Georgia might be focusing on Kentucky.

My guess: Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.

vs. Vanderbilt

Back-to-back-to-back: The Commodores have only nine seniors and nine returning starters. In winning four straight in this series, UK has beaten stronger Vandy teams than this one projects to be.

Slip back: Kentucky has kept Vanderbilt from becoming bowl-eligible two times in the prior three seasons. You know Bobby Johnson would relish turning the tables on the Cats.

My guess: Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 16.

at Tennessee

Back-to-back-to-back: Two years ago, Kentucky pushed Tennessee all over Neyland Stadium at the line of scrimmage — but lost. Last season, Kentucky had a 34-yard field goal in the second overtime that would have beaten Tennessee — but lost.

Slip back: Twenty-three years in a row, Kentucky has had a chance to beat Tennessee — but lost them all. Will any of us live long enough to again see UK beat UT in football?

My guess: Tennessee 23, Kentucky 20.

Bowl Prognosis

Final season record: 6-6 (with a trip to play a Big East representative in the Papajohn’s.com Bowl in Birmingham, Ala.).