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2008 Election Poll      

Likely voters give Clinton the edge on the economy

By Ryan Alessi

Ralessi@herald-leader.com

It's the economy, stupid. Again.

The same issue that became the focus of Bill Clinton's upstart 1992 presidential campaign is overwhelmingly the top concern of Kentuckians in the 2008 race, according to a Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll.

And Kentuckians -- a plurality of whom voted for Clinton in November 1992 -- again say a Clinton is the best of the presidential hopefuls to handle U.S. economic problems.

Thirty-eight percent of 600 likely Kentucky voters surveyed chose Democratic U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the most capable candidate on economic policies. Nearly half of Democrats surveyed picked her, compared with 28 percent for Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.

"This is one of these areas where she is really benefiting from Bill Clinton being in the White House and the country enjoying very good economic times during his terms," said Joe Gershtenson, director of the Center for History and Politics at Eastern Kentucky University.

Bill Clinton used the mantra, "It's the economy, stupid," to defeat President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, meanwhile, was Kentuckians' top choice of the three to manage the conflict in Iraq and ward off the threat of terrorism, according to the telephone poll, conducted May 7-9.

Research 2000, an Olney, Md.-based firm, conducted the survey, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

While Democrats, Republicans and independents all picked the economy as their top issue, they agreed on very little after that.

The second most important issue to Republicans was national security, which was cited by 27 percent of GOP respondents. After that, Republicans picked taxes and moral values.

Among Democrats, the war in Iraq was the second most pressing issue, garnering 21 percent of responses, followed by health care and national security.

And independents cited health care as a distant second choice with 12 percent.

Those numbers suggest Democrats are picking the most important issues in the race based on problems they want to see solved, while Republicans are selecting issues, such as national security, that need to be managed, Gershtenson said.

Different economic views

Kentucky voters were divided over who best could handle the economy, although Clinton came out on top with 38 percent.

McCain was the pick of 32 percent of respondents, followed by Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, who is leading Clinton nationally for their party's nomination.

McCain, the GOP nominee in waiting, should be concerned that the economy has become such a dominant issue because that generally doesn't bode well for the candidate of the incumbent party, Gershtenson said.

"This is not going to be the issue on which McCain would want to base his campaign," he said.

Cindy Sanders, a Nicholasville Republican, said she is most concerned with gas prices, health insurance costs and the transfer of jobs overseas and isn't 100 percent comfortable with McCain yet.

"I don't know if he's the best one to handle it," said Sanders, 54, a computer operator at Appalachian Regional Healthcare. Sanders, however, agreed with the 71 percent of Republicans surveyed who said McCain is best to manage national security issues.

Terrorism questions

While McCain showed double-digit leads over both Clinton and Obama among respondents on national security issues and the war, that picture could change in the fall, said Gershtenson.

"If you add Clinton and Obama's numbers, that gives a very different picture," he said. McCain would trail the combined Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent on issues pertaining to the war and by 3 percentage points on national security issues.

David Thompson, a 34-year-old Republican who served in Iraq for six months in 2003, said McCain is "hands down" the best choice to handle military issues because of his experience.

"Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama have both built their platforms on getting out of Iraq," he said. "They just want to turn tail and run, which would be costly in human life and in long-term security."Top issue

Which of the following is the single most important issue in determining your vote for president in the general election?

economy

NATIONAL SECURITY

WAR IN IRAQ

HEALTH CARe

taxes

moral values

immigration

government ethics

other/ not sure
Coming at 6 p.m.: Find out who leads in the U.S. Senate race. Full results: Download detailed poll results.

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