John Clay's Top 25

John Clay

1. North Carolina

Punch up Dictionary.com and under the definition of loaded you are likely to find a picture not of John Daly, but of Roy Williams. For a different reason. The Tar Heels coach would be wearing an ear-to-ear grin. Turns out UNC has a terrific retention plan. Tyler Hansbrough came back. Ty Lawson came back. Wayne Ellington came back. And the NCAA title will come back to Chapel Hill.

2. Louisville

Earl Clark's return was the best news Rick Pitino got all spring. Samardo Samuels' decision to skip the NBA Draft was the best news the Cards got all summer. If Terrence Williams plays up to his potential, Louisville could make last year's East Region final this year's NCAA Tournament final.

3. Michigan State

It's about time for Tom Izzo to make another Final Four run, and 6-foot sophomore Kalin Lucas is just the type of talent to lead a Spartan surge far into the tournament.

4. Connecticut

If Hasheem Thabeet continues to improve inside and A.J. Price plays under control outside, the Huskies might challenge Carolina for the title. Those are two big ifs, however, that Jim Calhoun must overcome to make UConn a real heavyweight again.

5. Memphis

John Calipari doesn't rebuild, he reloads, spreading out to attract talent from all four corners. Tyreke Evans is his latest get, and he should help the Tigers get right back in the Top 10 conversation.

6. Pittsburgh

It's a measure of how good the Big East will be that three conference teams belong in the Top 10. Sam Young is a star. Injuries kept the Panthers from making a huge run last year, but if DeJuan Blair has matured, Pitt might be it in '09.

7. Duke

Just because North Carolina figures to put a stranglehold on the ACC doesn't mean the Blue Devils can't flex a bit of muscle, too. Kyle Singler and Gerald Henderson lead a Coach K team that could make some noise by year's end.

8. Oklahoma

It's been a struggle for the Sooners, but Jeff Capel now has his best team since coming to Norman. Blake Griffin is the reason. The 6-10 sophomore is still a bit raw, but his athletic ability makes pro scouts drool. And with national champ Kansas rebuilding from the ground up, OU is poised to make a Big 12 run.

9. Gonzaga

This could be the year the Zags finally break through to the Final Four. Mark Few has all kinds of talent and experience, if the conference schedule doesn't soften the Bulldogs up before the NCAA Tournament. Four starters return from last year's 25-8 team.

10. Texas

The Longhorns did lose D.J. Augustin, but Rick Barnes has enough talent to keep churning out the W's. The guess here is that it's time for Damion James to take a star-turn deep in the heart of Texas.

11. Purdue

You had to love Matt Painter's gritty overachievers last year, and now the balanced Boilermakers are a year older. They should give Michigan State fits in a tight Big Ten race.

12. UCLA

Ben Howland might be the best coach in the business, which is why the depleted Bruins are picked this high. Howland's ability will have the Bruins in the hunt, but the loss of Kevin Love will probably keep them from a fourth straight Final Four.

13. Tennessee

It will seem odd to see the Vols without Chris Lofton this year, but Bruce Pearl may have a more balanced all-around outfit. Tyler Smith is back to lead the way, and Pearl has a good group of freshmen — led by Hopkinsville star Scotty Hopson — along with junior-college transfer Bobby Maze.

14. Notre Dame

The Irish aren't the best defensive club, but they can sure put the ball in the basket. And 6-8 junior forward Luke Harangody gives Mike Brey's team a toughness that other coaches would love to have.

15. Florida

The Gators were humbled last year, failing to make the NCAA Tournament after being back-to-back champs. Youth and no inside game were Billy Donovan's biggest problems. The youth is a year older. And any team with Nick Calathes is more than dangerous.

16. Miami

So when did the former football power turn into a hoops heaven on the beach? Frank Heath has made steady progress since coming to the "U" five years back, and now he has his best team. Jack McClinton is the star of a balanced group.

17. Xavier

The Musketeers won't be quite as good as last year, when Sean Miller's team lost to UCLA in the Elite Eight. But don't count out X this year. Three starters return, but Miller has to settle on a point guard.

18. Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons boast a terrific freshman class led by Al-Farouq Aminu, who could pull Wake up near the top of the ACC. Holdover James Johnson will give the young guys some help.

19. Arizona State

James Harden, an outstanding 6-4 guard, leads an underrated Herb Sendek team that could give the always-beastly Bruins a battle in the Pac 10.

20. Saint Mary's

A pleasant surprise last year, St. Mary's will have more of a target on its back this year. The best way to beat that is good guard play. And 6-foot sophomore Patrick Mills is one outstanding guard.

21. Marquette

First-year coach Buzz Williams inherits a roster full of excellent guards and high hopes. Think Tom Crean wishes he'd stayed in Milwaukee?

22. Davidson

Doubt that the longer three-point line will deter Stephen Curry from ripping the cords from any distance necessary. Wildcats won't be an underdog this year, but they'll still be plenty good.

23. Baylor

Scott Drew has the Bears back, not just on the way back. Led by Curtis Jerrells, Baylor might be one more recruiting class away from a Final Four run.

24. Kansas

Yes, the Jayhawks lost nearly everyone but the team doctor off last year's title team. But Bill Self can coach. And Sherron Collins can play. By year's end, the Hawks will be hovering around the top 25.

25. UNLV

Top recruit Beas Hamga could be just the guy to put Lon Kruger's team into an Elite Eight at year's end.