Hurricane Summary POSTED: August 20, 2014 4:15 p.m.
Tropical Waves Tracking Toward the Caribbean
The recent quietness across the Atlantic Basin may soon give way to a more active pattern in coming days. There are several areas to monitor closely over the next several days. Of immediate
concern are two tropical waves tracking west toward the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean. The tropical wave located near 55 west, mainly south of 12 north, has a 1009 mb surface low associated
with it. A second tropical wave near 46 west, mainly south of 13 north, has limited convection associated with it and it less organized than the wave located near 55 west. Of these two waves the one
near 55 west has the highest chance of developing into a tropical system later this week as it moves away from the dry African air which has been stifling tropical development. The American and the
European climate models show that this system will track across the Caribbean this weekend and into the Gulf next week.
The most immediate impacts will be felt across the Lesser Antilles with gusty winds and heavy showers Thursday night through Friday. It's possible that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico get
similar impacts over the weekend. An upper-level easterly shear should limit development over the next couple of days, but computer models show the shear lessening in the path of this feature over
the weekend, so it could strengthen as long as it does not interact with too much land over the northern Caribbean.
Looking down the road, if there is a coherent tropical cyclone over the northern Caribbean early next week, high pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi Valley may help to steer this feature
into and across the Gulf of Mexico next week. It is also possible that an upper-level trough and developing low pressure area east of the mid-Atlantic coast draws the system farther north across the
Bahamas and toward Bermuda. All interests in the Caribbean and along the Gulf and southeastern U.S. coasts should monitor the development of these tropical waves.
Elsewhere, an area of low pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast is projected to move east and intensify. The system will be moving over marginally warm water but will be impacted by strong
upper-level westerly shear. Still, it's not out of the question that it could become a hybrid or subtropical low pressure system over the next several days.
An upper-level low pressure center over northeastern Mexico is interacting with the northern end of a tropical wave, but development is not expected.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson.