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Forget Brooks' spin; Cats are in

STATE OF SEC MAKES SIX WINS GOLDEN

Mark Story

What I know: Rich Brooks — for obvious reasons of motivation — keeps emphasizing that Kentucky needs to win a seventh game to ensure a third straight bowl trip.

What I think: Whether it wins again or not, UK is already all but locked into a post-season trip.

Having added the PapaJohns.com Bowl to its existing tie-ins, the Southeastern Conference is assured of at least nine bowl slots. If, as now seems likely, both Alabama and Florida qualify for the Bowl Championship Series, that would make room for 10 SEC teams in the post-season.

Problem is, barring a run of late-season major upsets, there is scant chance the SEC will have 10 bowl-eligible teams.

As of now, six SEC schools — Alabama (10-0); Florida (8-1), Georgia (8-2), South Carolina (7-3), LSU (6-3) and Kentucky (6-4) — are bowl-eligible.

Three conference teams, Mississippi (5-4), Vanderbilt (5-4) and Auburn (5-5), are one win away.

Of that trio, Ole Miss has the easiest path with home games left with Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State (surrounding a road game at LSU).

Vandy has three winnable games — at UK, Tennessee, and at Wake Forest — but must overcome its own negative mental block. Since 1982, the Commodores are 0-17 in games that could have made them bowl-eligible.

Auburn must either beat Georgia at home or Alabama on the road.

Arkansas (4-6) has to win its remaining games at Mississippi State and at home with LSU to be bowl-eligible. At 3-6, Mississippi State must win out — at Alabama, Arkansas, at Ole Miss.

Tennessee (3-7) is the one conference team already eliminated from post-season contention.

Unlike a year ago when a bowl-eligible South Carolina had nowhere to go, this season's SEC bowl quandary is likely to be not enough teams to fill its slots.

My guess: Ole Miss gets to seven wins and Vandy beats Tennessee to get its sixth to give the SEC eight bowl-eligible teams. I expect Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State to join poor Phil Fulmer in not being qualified for the post-season.

As of now, I expect the winner of the SEC championship game between Alabama and Florida to go to the national title game, with the loser in the Sugar Bowl.

That would put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, LSU in the Cotton Bowl and South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

This is where Kentucky still has plenty to play for. If UK gets to seven wins, that could leave the Chick-fil-A Bowl picking between the Cats and Ole Miss. Given the Kingdom of the Blue's track record of traveling in large numbers, I expect the Atlanta bowl to take UK (if the Cats win eight, Atlanta is a lock).

That would leave Ole Miss for the Music City Bowl and Vandy for the Liberty Bowl. It would also mean the Independence Bowl and the PapaJohns.com Bowl have no SEC teams.

What I know: With three games left in his second season, Steve Kragthorpe has already lost 10 times as Louisville football coach. Bobby Petrino lost only nine games in four years at U of L.

What I think: Kragthorpe should thank his lucky stars he's working in the same state as Rich Brooks.

It is the Brooks example of a coach who seemed dead in the water for three and a half years before his program turned dramatically in year four that has kept our state's sports media from being harshly critical of Krag-thorpe.

It hasn't stopped a very restive Louisville fan base from unloading on the coach.

With games remaining against Cincinnati, West Virginia and at Rutgers, it is possible that U of L (5-4) will not win again in 2008.

Even if that happens, Kragthorpe should not lose his job.

Unless there are off-the-field scandals or complete on-the-field incompetence (meaning 1-11 seasons), you owe a coaching hire a tenure of a fair length.

Before Rich Brooks, I thought you could usually tell the ultimate trajectory of a coaching regime after the third year. Now, I think you have to give a coach at least four years.

What I Know: Among the readers who pointed out that I omitted Tayshaun Prince and his Olympic men's basketball gold medal in my Friday column about the notable 2008 athletics achievements of ex-Kentucky Wildcats was one who caught my attention:

My mother.

What I Think: When even your mom objects to something you've written, you've probably messed up.

As I pointed out Friday, the people I did mention — Joe Blanton, J.B. Holmes, Jared Lorenzen, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Webb — were all products of the state of Kentucky.

Still, I should have mentioned at least in passing Californian Prince, too.

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