You have to wonder: Will the Shaping Our Appalachian Region summit Monday in Pikeville be the start of something big, or just another feel-good effort that doesn't amount to much?
More than 1,500 people have registered to attend the conference called by Gov. Steve Beshear and U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, who said they wanted ideas from throughout Eastern Kentucky for strategies to diversify the region's economy.
There have been dozens of conferences on this topic over the years, but this one offers some hopeful signs. For one thing, it is the first high-level, bipartisan effort. Politicians who usually dance to the tune of the all-powerful coal industry are actually asking other people what they think.
But once the talking is over and the reports are written, will leadership, public investment and private capital get behind the good ideas? Will anything really change?
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Creating a sustainable, broadly prosperous economy in a region that has never really had one will be a monumental challenge.
Eastern Kentucky has never lacked for intelligent, hard-working people. But it has been handicapped by isolation, lack of education and opportunity, corrupt politics and powerful economic forces beyond its borders and control.
Since the late 1800s, the region has gone from subsistence farming to large-scale timber extraction to increasingly destructive methods of coal mining. The result has been a classic colonial economy, where most of the wealth flowed out of the region, or to a small local elite, while a large underclass survived on welfare and charity.
This cycle of poverty and dependence has led to hopelessness, drug abuse and other social problems, as was outlined in the most recent chapters of the excellent series Fifty Years of Night, by Herald-Leader reporters John Cheves and Bill Estep.
Can a new and different chapter be written for Eastern Kentucky?
In calling this summit, Beshear and Rogers cited the loss of more than 6,000 coal jobs over the past two years. But they wisely avoided their usual "war on coal" rhetoric, which blames the industry's problems on long-overdue environmental regulation and enforcement.
The main reasons for declining coal production are cheaper Western coal and even cheaper natural gas. Besides, coal employment in Eastern Kentucky has been falling for three decades, from a high of 37,505 in 1981, primarily because of industry mechanization and a shift from deep to surface mining.
Eastern Kentucky's current coal employment is 7,951, the lowest in generations, and that is unlikely to improve much. Coal will continue to be a presence. But because the large, easy-to-mine reserves are gone, most of the coal jobs will never return.
There are no "magic bullet" solutions to replacing Eastern Kentucky's coal-based economy. (Not that coal itself was ever a magic bullet. Even when coal employment and production were at their peaks, the coal counties were still among the nation's poorest.)
The citizens group Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has some good ideas about what a new Eastern Kentucky economy should aspire to. Those principles would be a good starting point for Monday's conversations.
KFTC's vision calls for a "just" transition that promotes "innovation, self-reliance and broadly held local wealth." It urges more citizen participation in decision-making, and calls for restoration and protection of the environment and public health. It also urges leaders to "consider the effects of decisions on future generations."
Tourism and outdoor recreation are often mentioned as potential economic opportunities, but that will require cleaning up some of strip mining's environmental damage. Kentucky should lobby for money to do that work from the federal Abandoned Mine Lands fund, which could keep thousands of former coal miners employed for years.
Home-grown entrepreneurship and technology jobs are other often-mentioned possibilities to building Eastern Kentucky's middle class, but they will require serious state investments in education and infrastructure to attract private capital. Kentucky's tax-phobic politicians and the citizens who elect them have never been willing to make such serious investment, and that must change if anything else is to.
Shaping a new Eastern Kentucky economy will require a lot of creativity, commitment and hard work, not to mention leadership, inclusion and accountability.
There will be many obstacles to overcome, not the least of which is cynicism. It will be a long process. But Monday in Pikeville is as good a time and place to start as any.