Just as everyone decided Donald Trump would lead the Republican presidential polls for the next several months, Ben Carson tied him for the lead in an Iowa survey released Monday. A Bloomberg poll released over the weekend still has Trump with the edge. This still tells us nothing about what's going to happen in the Iowa caucuses, which don't take place until February. Nor does the national polling — where Carson has also moved up into second place — give us any indication of who will win the nomination. But what today's survey may forecast is that Carson will get some media attention. If he does, he'll also likely get a more pronounced polling surge, possibly into first place. Granted, the retired neurosurgeon may be even less qualified to be president (and, one could argue, even more prone to irresponsible statements) than Trump is. Carson is good, however, at speaking the resentment-filled language of conservative talk radio. Remember, what's keeping Trump on top now appears to be almost entirely the huge media attention. One way Trump will lose altitude will be when other candidates are in the news. Enter Carson.
Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg