FRANKFORT — Thirty days hath September, April, June and November. Thirty days also hath the U.S. Senate race from hell.
Thirty nights hence, Kentucky's $100 million campaign nightmare concludes. With all due respect to Libertarian David Patterson and his legal battle to get in on an upcoming KET debate, 30 nights hence, either Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell or Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes will be celebrating a narrow victory while the other mourns a narrow loss and Patterson once again gets ignored.
Meanwhile, millions of TV viewers across the commonwealth will happily welcome the return of the normal advertising drivel pushed aside in recent months by a blitzkrieg of the nauseatingly deceptive and often outright lying drivel we know as political ads.
Never mind that both campaigns are, for the moment, featuring touchy-feely ads about which one "cares" the most for everyday Kentuckians. Their surrogates keep pushing the nauseatingly deceptive and often outright lying drivel, and the two campaigns will return to the same mode shortly.
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Polls conducted and released more than 30 days out from an election generally have about as much value as the nauseatingly deceptive and often outright lying drivel or the infomercials you only see at 3 a.m. That's when the audience is limited to insomniac retirees, second-shift workers winding down from a hard afternoon/evening in the salt mines, college students with no classes come daylight and the jobless who still have access to TVs but don't have the wherewithal to buy what the infomercials are selling.
In politics, where one comment can turn a planetary candidate into a Pluto-like dwarf planetary candidate in an instant, 30 days equate to 30 lifetimes. So, no one should get too excited or too depressed by the results of an internal poll the Grimes camp released this past week showing her leading McConnell by 2 points, particularly since recent public polls have her trailing by as much as 8 points.
Still, certain aspects of this poll should give heart to Democratic Grimes supporters and dishearten Republican McConnell supporters.
It was conducted by The Mellman Group, which has at least some track record of getting it right when the public polls got it wrong. It sampled 1,800 voters, considerably more than the usual public poll questions, which reduced the margin of error to 2.3 percent.
It showed Grimes leading by 9 percentage points among independents and 22 percentage points among self-described "moderates," both of which comprise the "middle" that holds the balance in this election. She also polled well on creating new jobs, protecting Social Security and Medicare, caring "about people like you" and sharing "your values."
But the internal poll's numbers jumping out at me were these: Grimes had the support of 75 percent of registered Democrats compared to McConnell getting the support of 73 percent of registered Republicans.
We all know Kentucky has gone "red state" big time in national elections, never more so than in the two elections involving President Barack Obama. Racism runs rampant in the commonwealth, perhaps even more rampant than in the Deep South, where growing minority populations will cause a swing back to Democratic liberalism long before a similar shift happens here.
Sadly, a vast majority of Kentucky voters who reject liberalism are the ones who would benefit most from it. Stupid is as stupid does.
Even if they don't vote that way, registered Democrats retain a substantial majority in Kentucky, nearly 1.7 million to slightly less than 1.3 million Republicans.
So, If Grimes wins the middle and gets 75 percent of the D vote while McConnell gets just 73 percent of the R vote, as the internal poll suggests, she can and should win, assuming this poll's numbers are accurate and continue to hold.
But we're still 30 days out from the election. And in politics, 30 days equate to 30 lifetimes.
Reach Larry Dale Keeling at firstname.lastname@example.org.