Sidelines with John Clay

Kentucky-Davidson: Statistical comparisons

No one can match UK's dominance in the NCAA Tournament

Kentucky has made the tournament 56 times, the most in NCAA history. But that's not where its superiority in the tournament record books stops.
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Kentucky has made the tournament 56 times, the most in NCAA history. But that's not where its superiority in the tournament record books stops.

With No. 5 seed Kentucky facing No. 12 seed Davidson in an NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first-round game on Thursday, here’s a look at statistical comparisons between the two teams.

Note: These are raw numbers, not the adjusted numbers based on opposition strength used by Ken Pomeroy. Using kenpom’s numbers, Kentucky averages 1.165 points per possession, while giving up 0.960 points per possession. Davidson averages 1.175 points per possession compared to 1.025 for its opponents. Kenpom picks Kentucky to win 73-70.

I’m picking Kentucky to win, but it will be hard game. Mark Story looks at the match-ups and makes a prediction.

Here is the statistical breakdown:

Kentucky-Davidsion statistical comparisons

Category

UK

DAV

AP ranking

18

RV

Coaches poll

25

NR

RPI

15

59

Pomeroy ranking

18

43

Pomeroy offense

22

17

Pomeroy defense

22

117

Sagarin ranking

14

53

Sagarin strength of schedule

13

94

Field goal percentage

47.0

48.3

Opponents FG percentage

40.6

43.7

Effective FG percentage

51.7

57.7

Opponents effective FG percentage

46.9

51.2

Three-point percentage

36.1

39.1

Opponents 3P percentage

29.9

35.2

Threes attempted per game

15.1

27.3

Threes made per game

5.4

10.7

Free throw percentage

69.7

79.7

FT attempts per game

24.6

13.9

Rebound margin per game

4.7

1.4

Off rebound percentage

35.6

22.7

Opponent off reb percentage

31.3

23.4

Assists per game

13.4

16.8

Turnovers per game

13.0

9.6

Turnover percentage

18.6

14.5

Opponents turnover percentage

17.2

16.2

Blocked shots per game

4.9

2.0

Steals per game

5.6

4.8

Points per game

76.7

76.4

Opponents points per game

70.3

67.6

Points per possession

1.093

1.160

Opp points per possession

1.007

1.027

Possessions per game

70.2

65.9

Projected score

72.2

73.8

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