Calipari or Pitino, Mitchell or Walz, who needs a Final Four trip most in 2017?
The seven NCAA Tournaments that proceeded 2016’s have been something of a modern golden era for fans of the most high-profile basketball programs in Kentucky.
Alas, 2016 is where this era of good feelings ended — or, at best, paused.
This past season, a major scandal caused Louisville to self-impose an NCAA Tournament ban on its men’s hoops program. The Kentucky men failed to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAAs.
The U of L women were upset by a lower seed in the second round on their home court. UK’s women, given a chance to earn a Final Four berth without ever leaving Lexington and with a bracket that “opened up” for them due to upsets, fell in the round of 16.
Now, all four of our state’s marquee college hoops coaches — John Calipari and Rick Pitino, Matthew Mitchell and Jeff Walz — will enter the 2016-17 season with substantial need to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
In reverse order (least to most), let’s rank the coaches on who faces the most urgency to get to the Final Four.
Jeff Walz
2016 NCAA Tournament: 1-1. As a No. 3 seed, Louisville was upset by No. 6-seeded DePaul in the round of 32 in the KFC Yum Center.
Coach’s NCAA history at the school: Made eight Big Dance appearances in nine years as head coach (21-8 in NCAA games). Six Sweet 16s, three Elite Eights, two trips (2009 and ’13) to the NCAA championship game.
Positive spin: After Connecticut walloped Louisville 93-60 in the 2013 NCAA finals, Walz vowed to up his recruiting to the level it takes to beat UConn. In his past three recruiting classes, Walz has signed nine prospects ranked in the top 50 in the nation by ESPN HoopGurlz (although one, five-star guard Taja Cole, has left the program).
Negative spin: The NCAA tourney results have yet to track the upgraded recruiting rankings, with Louisville going 3-2 and being eliminated by a seven seed (Dayton) and a six seed (DePaul) in the past two seasons.
Pressure gauge: With three straight highly regarded recruiting classes now forming the core of the U of L roster, it will be a major disappointment if Louisville does not return to the Final Four in the next two seasons.
John Calipari
2016 NCAA Tournament: 1-1. As a No. 4 seed, Kentucky lost to No. 5 Indiana in the round of 32.
Coach’s NCAA history at the school: Made six NCAA trips in seven years at UK (23-5 in Big Dance games). Five Elite Eights, four Final Fours and the 2012 NCAA championship.
Positive spin: Calipari’s four trips to the national semifinals in five years (2011-15) constitute the best stretch of making Final Fours in UK history.
Negative spin: Kentucky had the most talented roster in the 2010, 2012 and 2015 NCAA Tournaments, yet the Cats have only one NCAA title to show for it.
Pressure gauge: If, as expected, Skal Labissiere, Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis are selected in the first round of the 2016 NBA draft, it will make Calipari’s Kentucky ratio of first-round picks to NCAA titles won 21 to 1. At some point, the narrative of Calipari’s UK tenure will be defined by whether that second number rises.
Matthew Mitchell
2016 NCAA Tournament: 2-1. As a No. 3 seed, Kentucky lost to No. 7 Washington in the round of 16 in Rupp Arena.
Coach’s NCAA history at the school: In nine seasons, made seven NCAA trips with five Sweet 16s and three Elite Eights.
Positive spin: In its entire history, the UK women’s basketball program has won 19 NCAA Tournament games; Mitchell has 15 (15-7) of those victories.
Negative spin: Because UK Hoops has yet to punch through to a Final Four, “can’t get over the hump” is the unwanted phrase increasingly being attached.
Pressure gauge: Next season will be the second of three years in which UK is contracted to host a women’s NCAA tourney region in Rupp Arena. That means it is the second season in a row in which Kentucky could advance to the Final Four without leaving Lexington. UK’s two most talented players, Makayla Epps and Evelyn Akhator, will be seniors in 2016-17. So next season is a pivotal one for Mitchell.
Rick Pitino
2016 NCAA Tournament: None.
Coach’s NCAA history at the school: In 15 years, made 12 NCAA appearances (28-11) with seven Sweet 16s, six Elite Eights, three Final Fours and the 2013 national championship.
Positive spin: Is 15-4 in the NCAA Tournament over the past five seasons.
Negative spin: Is now presiding over the second embarrassing sex scandal attached to the Louisville basketball program on his watch.
Pressure gauge: With the NCAA yet to act on the escorts/strippers-for-recruits scandal at U of L, it’s possible Louisville will not be eligible for the 2017 NCAA tourney. It’s also possible Pitino could be suspended for part of next season — or even terminated. Assuming U of L is still tourney-eligible and Pitino is on the bench, the pressure on the coach to make a deep tourney run in 2017 to justify Louisville sticking with him amid scandal will be extreme.
Mark Story: 859-231-3230, @markcstory
This story was originally published April 7, 2016 at 6:32 PM with the headline "Calipari or Pitino, Mitchell or Walz, who needs a Final Four trip most in 2017?."