Kentucky football’s close-game luck finally runs out

Look at it this way, the law of averages finally caught up to this Kentucky football team.

That’s just a mathematical fact, the way the real world works. It seems every UK game but one has gone down to the wire for the Cats in this nail-biter of a football season, and somehow, someway Mark Stoops’ team found a way to more often than not come out on top.

Then just like that, UK’s luck ran out. Five seconds to go. Third-and-goal at the UK seven-yard line. Ole Miss backup quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, who looked nothing like a backup, lofted a fade pass into the back left corner of the end zone for wide receiver D.K. Metcalf.

UK cornerback Lonnie Johnson, making his first career start, could not have covered it any better — except for one important detail. He couldn’t knock the ball away. Instead of Kentucky somehow finding a way to win, it was Metcalf who somehow found a way to make the terrific grab in blanket coverage for the winning touchdown.

“They made a super competitive catch in the end zone and we didn’t,” said UK Coach Mark Stoops afterward. “It’s a game of inches and give them credit.”

You’d think by Kentucky’s record, now 6-3, the Cats’ separation level was a little more than inches, but not really. They beat Southern Miss by seven points, Eastern Kentucky by 11, South Carolina by 10, Eastern Michigan by four, Missouri by six and Tennessee by three. Take out the 45-7 blowout loss at Mississippi State and aside from the one-point loss at Florida, the Cats had claimed all the close ones. That’s living dangerously.

And Saturday proved that’s what this Kentucky team is, good but not great, successful but not special enough to put away opponents it should put away or special enough to get the stop it needed to get against a team that was 3-5 overall and 1-4 in the SEC.

Don’t blame the UK offense. Not entirely. There was that stretch of four straight punts in the second half when Kentucky had led 27-17. Still, Eddie Gran’s offense gained 455 yards, scored 34 points, and put together a gritty, 95-yard scoring drive with Benny Snell scoring from a yard out to give UK a 34-30 lead with 2:14 left.

It was up to the defense to hold the lead and the defense couldn’t do it. Ole Miss entered the game 26th nationally in total offense and first in the SEC in passing offense. You could see why. Ta’amu, a Samoan from Hawaii who made his first start for the injured Shea Patterson last week, possessed a cannon for an arm and a quick delivery that negated UK’s pass rush. He also benefited from a quartet of big-play wide receivers and an effective tight end.

Kentucky’s secondary couldn’t measure up. Considered a defensive strength when the season began, the defensive backfield has allowed too much passing yardage, too many big plays, too many receivers running free. Asked how his cornerbacks played the ball in the air on Saturday, Stoops answered, “Not good enough.”

Near the end, Kentucky almost caught a break when Ta’amu was ruled to have fumbled at the UK seven-yard line and the Cats recovered. “We thought we had won it,” said Stoops before the replay correctly reversed the ball, saying the ground caused the fumble.

Earlier in the year, Kentucky probably gets that call, but then the law of averages ran out and real numbers set in, like Ta’amu completing 31 of 40 passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He completed eight of 12 passes on the final drive, the last one being the game-winner.

“Very devastating,” Stoops called the loss afterward.

In a way, however, it was very predictable. Few teams can escape with close victories week after week after week. Saturday, Kentucky finally got caught.

This story was originally published November 4, 2017 at 9:20 PM with the headline "Kentucky football’s close-game luck finally runs out."