Crop futures surge as US signals $17 billion in China purchases

An agreement on U.S. agricultural sales to China outlined by the White House is raising optimism for a demand pickup beyond soybeans, helping to drive prices higher across the board for crop futures.

China has agreed to buy at least $17 billion annually in American agricultural produce through 2028, according to a fact sheet posted Sunday by the White House following U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing. That's in addition to a soybean purchase pledge from late 2025, when Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping initially met in a bid to ease the rift between the two sides.

"I believe it's a real positive, if they fulfill their obligation," said Scott Van Allen, a Kansas farmer who grows wheat, soybeans and sorghum.

Most-active corn futures rose as much as 4.4% on Monday, the biggest intraday gain since March 2024, while wheat gained as much as 4.7%. Soybeans and cotton were also higher. China is one of the world's largest agricultural importers and the moves mark a reversal from last week, when crop prices plunged on a lack of detail over farm-good purchases during the summit.

"Sunday's White House Fact Sheet will be discussed long beyond this week," AgResource Co. said in a note, with traders looking to see actual cash buying from China.

Many market watchers are already trying to parse exactly what agricultural products China might buy.

"The problem is the language is so obscurely worded," Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm said in a note. "Are they buying pecans? Cranberries? Meat scraps? Cheese? Almonds?"

Blohm said she expects that China will buy U.S. soybeans in late August, and that the country also will buy cotton, corn and sorghum.

Over the weekend, China's Ministry of Commerce had said Beijing and Washington will adopt a series of measures, including mutually cutting levies on certain products, to expand bilateral trade in areas including agriculture, without giving more specifics. The ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the agricultural pledge outlined by the White House.

The Hightower Report said the deal outlined by the White House appears particularly bullish for corn.

"U.S. corn export demand has outperformed all season and any additional buying by China could require USDA to further tighten the balance sheet," the Hightower Report said in a note.

The White House also said China has restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing export registrations for more than 400 facilities and adding new listings.

The Asian nation, the top U.S. soybean export customer, had held off on purchases for much of 2025 amid a broader trade dispute between the nations. That changed as the sides reached a truce during an October summit between Trump and Xi in South Korea.

China met an initial 12-million metric ton soybean purchase pledge in the months after and the White House said the country had agreed to buy at least 25 million tons annually through 2028 - a figure Beijing has never confirmed. The pact reached after last week's meetings appears to build on that foundation, even as the scope of farm products involved remains unclear.

A resumption in Chinese imports of U.S. corn would break a roughly two-year lull in significant purchases, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show. While still well below past peaks, China's corn imports through April from all origins are up more than 80% from last year. Heavy rains in the north last year had disrupted the harvest and caused some crop damage.

Chinese buyers returned for U.S. wheat after Trump and Xi's 2025 summit, but purchases have remained at limited levels. Sorghum sales, meanwhile, have held at a steady pace.

Still, traders were hopeful that the latest summit would produce a comprehensive deal and had priced in a more significant outcome than what the U.S. administration announced, said Chris Nikolaou, general manager at Advantage Grain. The White House said the $17-billion trade figure would be prorated for 2026 agricultural purchases.

Data released Monday also pointed to slowing Chinese economic growth, which could weigh on agricultural demand. And crop markets remain disrupted by the fuel and fertilizer price spikes from the war in the Middle East, which is raising input costs for producers globally.

Corn futures last week fell the most in four months. Prices for the crop - as well as wheat and soybeans - remain below recent highs.

"We've still got the same backdrop we had last week," Nikolaou said. "The Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Iran conflict continues."

(With assistance from Michael Hirtzer.)

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This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 10:05 PM.