Record drop in carbon emissions forecast due to COVID-19. Don’t celebrate, experts say
Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall by about 2.6 billion tons this year, or about 8%, from 2019, the largest recorded drop since the global financial crisis of 2008, the International Energy Agency said.
Say thanks to the coronavirus pandemic that has shuttered factories and slowed travel of all kinds, putting a pause on the burning of fossil fuels that release the greenhouse gases in the air.
“This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today’s unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas,” IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol said in a news release. “It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before.”
But don’t pull out the champagne just yet, experts warn.
When economies improve and people leave their homes after the pandemic subsides, harmful emissions are likely to soar, similar to what happened after the global financial crisis.
“This historic decline in emissions is happening for all the wrong reasons,” Birol told The New York Times. “People are dying and countries are suffering enormous economic trauma right now. The only way to sustainably reduce emissions is not through painful lockdowns, but by putting the right energy and climate policies in place.”
And if nations try to boost their economies by “weakening environmental rules or subsidizing polluting industries like coal or steel,” then emissions can rise even faster and higher than expected, the outlet said.
What’s more, the United Nations has previously said that “global emissions would have to fall nearly 8 percent every single year between now and 2030 if countries hoped to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit),” The New York Times said.
The report demonstrates a real-time view of the impact of coronavirus across different energy sectors based on an analysis of more than 100 days this year.
Drops in emissions
The projected 8% drop in carbon emissions, which is equal to 2.6 billion tons, is nearly six times larger than the previous record drop of 400 million tons in 2009, the report said.
Much of the drop can be attributed to coronavirus-related shutdowns in China, the world’s largest coal user, The New York Times reported, which is “a far bigger drop than at any point during the Great Depression or at the end of World War II, when much of Europe lay in ruins.”
Global emissions during the first three months of 2020 were found to be 5% lower than those in 2019, The Hill reported, as a result of decreases in coal, oil and natural gas emissions.
Within the same period, the U.S. saw a 9% decline in emissions, the report said, although “mild weather conditions” also contributed to the drop.
Drops in energy demand
When stay-at-home orders went into full effect around the world, global energy demand fell by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the report.
“If lockdowns last for many months and recoveries are slow across much of the world, as is increasingly likely, annual energy demand will drop by 6% in 2020, wiping off the last five years of demand growth,” the report said.
A 6% drop is the “equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third largest energy consumer.”
The report said coal is likely to take the biggest hit, with a projected 8% decrease in demand in 2020.
Some other findings include:
Global oil use fell by 5% in the first quarter of this year
Global road transport dropped by about 50% by March
Global air traffic was down by 60% in March compared to 2019
Electricity demand is expected to decrease by 5% in 2020, “the largest drop since the Great Depression in the 1930s.”
Low-carbon sources and renewable energy demand
Low-carbon sources of electricity such as wind, solar, hydropower and nuclear are surprisingly more popular by demand during the pandemic, the report found.
They are set to beat coal electricity generation by 6 percentage points this year.
This is because existing wind turbines and solar panels, for example, cost less to operate than fossil-fuel plants, and get priority on electric grids.
“Renewables are set to be the only energy source that will grow in 2020,” with solar and wind energy, with help from hydropower, to increase “renewable electricity generation” by 5% this year, the report said.
However, nuclear power is on track to drop by 3% this year after reaching an all-time high in 2019, the report said.
This story was originally published April 30, 2020 at 3:10 PM with the headline "Record drop in carbon emissions forecast due to COVID-19. Don’t celebrate, experts say."
