Lifted lockdowns could push US coronavirus death toll to 134,000, model projects

As states continue to relax stay-at-home orders and social distancing restrictions, the projected number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. has almost doubled to 134,000, according to a University of Washington model regularly used by the White House.

The university’s model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),predicted Monday morning that over 72,000 Americans will die of the coronavirus, CNN reported. Hours later, that prediction spiked to 134,000 deaths through August, and the model is attributing that jump to increased mobility in multiple states, according to Reuters.

The model projects that New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan will have the five highest increases in deaths by the end of August, U.S. News reported.

“These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing politics into transmission dynamics,” the IMHE said in its update, according to U.S. News.

Another model used by the Trump Administration projects the U.S. will see up to 3,000 deaths a day by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by the New York Times. About 2,000 people have died daily in the U.S. over the past week, CNN reported.

The White House distanced itself from the report, saying it “is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting,” Judd Deere, spokesman for the White House, told Reuters. The President acknowledged Sunday night that the death toll will range between 75,000 and 100,000 people, Reuters reported.

Both models tie relaxed social distancing regulations in multiple states to the increase in deaths, according to CNN. Those states include Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina, CNN reported.

The U.S. coronavirus death toll has steadily risen, from 11 deaths on March 4, to 8,174 on April 4, to almost 69,000 Monday, May 4, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

This story was originally published May 4, 2020 at 9:45 PM with the headline "Lifted lockdowns could push US coronavirus death toll to 134,000, model projects."