Nine Kentucky counties show ‘accelerated spread’ of COVID-19. What does that mean?

A new tool by Harvard University lets users see how bad coronavirus is in each Kentucky county.

Harvard’s tool charts charts coronavirus risks by state and county according to the number of new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.

As of Thursday, no counties in Kentucky are classified in the highest risk level — dubbed the “tipping point.” But nine counties in the state, including Fayette, are in the next level — with an “accelerated spread” of the coronavirus.

Kentucky is middle of the road in the chart’s rankings of the U.S., placing 31st with 4.8 daily new cases per 100,000 residents over the last seven days.

“The public needs clear and consistent information about COVID risk levels in different jurisdictions for personal decision-making, and policy-makers need clear and consistent visibility that permits differentiating policy across jurisdictions,” Danielle Allen, director of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University, said in a news release.

How the map works

The map uses four colors to illustrate risk levels in every county: green, yellow, orange and red. It uses the number of new cases a day per 100,000 people over the past seven days to determine the appropriate risk category.

The map will change daily as new data are uploaded into the tracker.

Here’s what each color means:

• Green: Less than one case a day per 100,000 people and containment is on track. Use contact tracing and testing to monitor.

• Yellow: One to nine cases a day per 100,000 people, indicating community spread and the need for rigorous testing and tracing.

• Orange: Ten to 24 cases a day per 100,000 people, showing “accelerated spread,” and stay-at-home orders are advised.

• Red: Twenty-five or more a day cases per 100,000 people, meaning the county is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are necessary to contain the virus.

Which Kentucky counties are highest risk?

Kentucky’s statewide risk level on Thursday was yellow and better than 30 other states.

Nine of the state’s 120 counties are in orange. Fayette County, with 10.5 new cases per day per 100,000 in the last week, is ninth among those counties.

Half of Lexington’s 29 COVID-19 related deaths were in June, Mayor Linda Gorton said Wednesday. On Thursday, the city reported its most new cases in a single day with 46.

Knox County is the worst-performing county in the state in the last seven days, according to Harvard’s data. The southeastern Kentucky county has 23.4 cases per 100,000 people.

Fulton, Simpson, Warren, Shelby, Carroll, Jackson and Clay counties are also in the orange category.

Kentucky’s most populous county, Louisville’s Jefferson county, is in the yellow risk level. Jefferson County, which has around 770,000 residents, has a mere 4.5 new cases per 100,000 people over the last seven days, lower than the statewide average.

All of Fayette County’s neighbors — Woodford, Scott, Bourbon, Clark, Madison and Jessamine counties — are also yellow.

The majority of the state is yellow, while 24 counties are in the chart’s best level, meaning they’re on track for containment.

More than 15,800 people have tested positive for COVID-19 for Kentucky, according to the state Department of Public Health. Kentucky has recorded 572 coronavirus deaths.