More young Kentuckians are catching COVID-19. Here’s why and what it means.
As young Kentuckians, whose COVID-19 infections outpace all other age groups, have the go ahead to celebrate Independence Day weekend in bars and in groups, some state health experts are bracing for what’s to come.
Lexington infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist Dr. Mark Dougherty didn’t parse words: “I think we’re going to see a surge. I don’t think there’s any reason to think we won’t. That’s what’s happening everywhere else.”
People between the ages of 20 and 39 account for 34 percent of Kentucky’s 16,079 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, though they’re the least likely to be hospitalized or die from it.
“I think most people in that age group not only are getting out and about more to restaurants, get togethers and [for] traveling, I think they’ve been lulled a little bit into a sense of complacency because the initial impact of [the virus] seemed to be favorable to their population,” said Dr. Ryan Stanton, an emergency department physician who works with COVID-19 patients in Lexington.
Because of that, “there was a little bit of a false sense of security,” he said.
This makes them reliable spreaders, since many have minor or no symptoms and might not know they’re carrying the virus. People over age 70 in the state account for about half as many cases as younger folks, but they face a much greater risk of hospitalization and death from the virus.
As there has been a concerted effort to test more people in nursing homes, Kentuckians older than 80 are testing positive at a higher percentage than any other age group, at 0.75 percent. After that, Kentuckians in their 30s are the next highest, testing positive at 0.48 percent within their age group.
But because they make up a high number of cases, and make up a larger part of the population, young people are without a doubt edging infection rates up across regions, in part because they’re getting tested more often, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week in a conference call reported by The New York Times. Before mass testing was an option, many of those previous infections just went undiagnosed.
The CDC’s best estimate, he said, “is that for every case that was reported, there actually were 10 other infections.”
Though Kentucky’s economy began easing open in late May, the overall new case rate has yet to spike. But there are local indicators that might soon change. On Thursday, Lexington reported its largest single-day increase: 46 cases, for a total of 1,599.
Kentucky’s cases began to skew younger last month as testing expanded significantly beyond people who were presenting symptoms. Infection rates among young Lexingtonians grew by 60 percent in June, and people under 35 accounted for roughly half of last month’s new cases.
It’s a trend reflected across the country. In Arizona, where new cases are surging, people between the ages of 22 and 49 account for almost half of the state’s total cases. More than half of South Carolina’s cases are in people younger than 40. And in Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis said people ages 18-44 are largely responsible for the spike in cases across the state, which set another single-day increase record on Thursday.
So far the commonwealth’s case rate pales in comparison to neighboring states, including Tennessee, which reported its largest single-day increases on Wednesday, with 1,806 new cases. Ohio, similarly on Wednesday, reported 1,076 new cases, its largest increase in a day since April. The highest daily number Kentucky reached this week was 282 on Tuesday.
But now that bars have reopened, the chance of transmission only increases, and other states can speak from experience. In places where new cases have gotten out of control, like Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, state and local leaders have opted to re-shutter bars and limit restaurant occupancy. As Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said last week, “It is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars.”
Many will never develop symptoms at all, meaning, if you’re under 39 and not getting tested regularly, you are more likely to unknowingly transmit the virus to others. Dr. Kathleen Winters, assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Kentucky, wants more young people to let this reality dictate their actions.
“For the most part, young people are not as concerned about their own safety, and I think they’re pretty cavalier about their concern of getting the virus,” she said. But the “major concern” is the possibility of spreading it to others who are at risk, including their elders.
“We know people are not just staying completely isolated,” she said. “They’re coming back home, staying with parents and grandparents.”
Younger folks need to be diligent about wearing masks in public when they may share spaces with people who can’t fight the virus off as easily, Winters said. When it comes to visits with friends and family, “the most important thing young people can do is stay away from vulnerable individuals.”
Herald-Leader writer Daniel Desrochers contributed to this story.
This story was originally published July 3, 2020 at 10:38 AM.
