State labels how bad COVID-19 is in Lexington using old case counts. Why it matters.
Kentucky has determined Lexington’s COVID-19 spread to be “critical” again even though the city’s case counts are among the lowest they have been in months.
Gov. Andy Beshear on Thursday blamed the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department for the discrepancy that can affect schools, students and athletics.
Lexington’s “incidence rate” over the last seven days is 28, according to the state Department for Public Health, which puts the county in the worst — red — category. Gov. Andy Beshear’s office recommends counties in the “red zone” avoid in-person schooling. Red zone areas also are advised to cancel sporting events, according to the Kentucky High School Athletic Association.
But the city’s updated incidence rate over the last seven days is actually 22.3, according to current daily case numbers from the Lexington-Fayette health department. That would put Lexington in the “orange zone.” The orange category doesn’t call for canceling in-person instruction or sporting events, according to Beshear and KHSAA.
“The reason that the state information lags is that the Fayette County health department is one of the slower in the state about actually updating that information,” Beshear said. “And the answer to not getting that data in fast enough is not ‘don’t follow the state recommendations with the state data,’ it’s fix the problem.”
Fayette County Public Schools has a potential plan to allow small groups of elementary school students back into classrooms the week of Oct. 19. Schools in Fayette County — and across Kentucky — have continued to play football despite the red zone classification. But schools from other counties have canceled games with Fayette County schools due to the high COVID-19 concern.
The local health department didn’t deny that there is a lag in getting the data to the state. Case counts are initially handled by the Fayette health department, and it has to log updated counts into a database for the state, spokesman Kevin Hall said. New personnel have been hired to solve the issue, but they have to be trained and equipment has to be acquired, Hall said.
“We acknowledge that there is a delay, and we’re working daily with the state to try to address that,” Hall said.
Beshear also blamed Fayette County for not being on board with the state’s contact tracing system, and said LFCHD was the only local health department in Kentucky not using the statewide computer program. Hall said the goal is to be on board by mid-to-late October. That contact tracing system doesn’t have anything to do with the data lag, Hall said.
The data drives the state health department’s incidence rate map that categorizes the severity of COVID-19 spread in each county. The color-coded zones allow the state to easily offer guidance for schools on holding in-person classes or sporting events. The state defines “incidence rate” as the average number of new cases per 100,000 residents each day over the previous seven days.
Public Health Commissioner Steven Stack said Thursday that the discrepancy in data isn’t significant because the seven-day rolling average helps reduce the impact of outlying numbers.
“If you’re red at 25.1 or you’re orange at 24.6, you’re at the top of the scale,” Stack said. “That’s the takeaway ... you’ve got to be careful. You have a lot of disease.”
State’s Lexington COVID-19 case counts may be up to 3 weeks behind
Stack said the lag in data could be as long as three days. But the Lexington-Fayette health department said the data could be as much as three weeks behind, which would mean the state health department is just now reporting some of Lexington’s largest case increases. The city reported 123 cases on Sept. 9, 149 cases on Sept. 10, 167 cases on Sept. 11 and 108 cases on Sept. 12. The 167 cases was a one-day record for the city.
Beshear reported more than 140 cases for Fayette County on consecutive days this week, but the local health department has reported fewer than 90 new cases each of the past five days. When the state first started reporting the incidence rate, Lexington’s virus spread was actually twice as bad as what the state was reporting.
The state is still reporting more than 2,000 cases fewer than what Fayette County has reported since the pandemic reached Kentucky in March, so there are cases that have yet to be counted in the state’s numbers.
Hall said the local health department is in “regular communication” with people who make decisions based on COVID-19 severity, including local schools, the mayor’s office and the state health department. The numbers reported regularly by the local health department are the most up to date, and the city has prioritized the health and safety of residents over data entry, Hall said.
“Our focus remains on the cases and the people affected by it,” he said.
Stack said Thursday that the state’s data is subject to changes as the state continuously gathers new information.
“It’s not that it’s wrong, it’s the moment in time and the data they had at the time,” Stack said.
Even though Lexington’s incidence rate is now lower than the state reports, the area had a difficult September. There were 2,804 new cases, 116 hospitalizations and 17 deaths, according to the local health department. The new cases were a one-month record and the new deaths tied a one-month record previously set in January.
What is the incidence rate and how does Kentucky use it?
Kentucky’s “incidence rate” map was unveiled by Beshear and Stack on Sept. 13. The color-coded map is intended to give school districts a playbook of recommendations to follow, depending on how bad COVID-19 spreads in each district’s community.
School districts are advised to check the map every Thursday evening and plan for the following week. Green and yellow areas have to follow the state Department of Education’s “Healthy at School” guidance in order to hold in-person classes.
Orange areas are advised to “take enhanced measures, including more aggressive crowd limits, and should consider a variety of factors to determine what mode of instruction they should use,” according to Beshear. Red areas are advised to suspend in-person instruction the following week and only use remote learning, according to Beshear. KHSAA advised school sports teams to suspend play if they’re in a red zone.
The incidence rate is the average number of cases each day per 100,000 residents in a county. It’s calculated over a rolling seven-day average. It can be calculated by taking the average number of cases reported in a county each day for the past seven days and dividing it by the county’s total population. Then multiply that number by 100,000.
This story was originally published October 1, 2020 at 1:43 PM.