University of Kentucky students not to blame as Lexington COVID-19 cases trend upward
Lexington’s COVID-19 cases are trending slightly upward again after the city seemed to hit a plateau earlier in October.
The Lexington-Fayette County Health Department reported 123 new cases over the weekend, bringing the city’s total for the past week to 549. The rolling seven-day average increased to 78.4. The rolling average was 72.1 one week ago. Using a seven-day average minimizes extraordinary spikes or dips in cases.
The city has had 9,934 total COVID-19 infections, resulting in 87 deaths and 608 hospitalizations.
The resurgence of new cases hasn’t come directly from University of Kentucky students. UK students were driving a case spike in the city in September, but UK’s seven-day rolling average of new cases has hit its lowest point in over a month, according to data from the Lexington health department.
New cases among the rest of Lexington’s community last week increased by about 16.3 percent compared to the previous seven days. Hall said the increases over the past week can serve as “a good reminder.”
“Cases are not just part of one spot (such as universities or colleges) or one age group,” health department spokesman Kevin Hall said in an email. “Too many people think it’s happening to others, but we all need to realize it could affect each of us and our loved ones.”
Over half of Lexington’s deaths were nursing home residents
Nursing home and other long-term care facility residents have made up more than half of Lexington’s COVID-19 deaths, according to data from the Lexington health department. The state Department of Public Health and the Lexington health department have reported deaths from seven different long-term care facilities in Lexington.
- Pine Meadows Post Acute: 25 resident deaths
- Homestead Post Acute: 10 resident deaths
- Northpoint Lexington Health Care Center: 4 resident deaths
- The Willows at Fritz Farm: 3 resident deaths
- Cambridge Place: 2 resident deaths
- Liberty Ridge Senior Living: 1 resident death
- Morning Pointe of Lexington: 1 resident death
The state has reported more deaths from nursing homes and other long-term care facilities than the Lexington health department. Lexington has reported four nursing home deaths this month.
Lexington’s incidence rate climbs towards ‘critical’ spread
Lexington’s “incidence rate” had remained lower after the state health department and the Lexington health department worked together to correct Lexington’s case numbers. The rate had fallen all the way down to 15 at one point, which is the lower end of “accelerated” spread, according to the health department.
But as of Sunday, the rate was back up to 23.7, which is just shy of the red zone. Once a county hits the red zone, it’s recommended that K-12 schools in the area suspend in-person instruction and sporting events, according to Gov. Andy Beshear’s office and the Kentucky High School Athletic Association.
The state categorizes COVID-19 spread by a color-coded map, which ranges from green to red. Counties in the green zone are considered “on track.” Counties in the yellow zone are considered to have “community spread.” Counties in the orange zone have “accelerated” spread. Counties in the red zone have “critical” spread.
Public Health Commissioner Steven Stack has recommended that school districts check the incidence rate map on Thursday evenings and plan for the next week based on where the county stands that day.
Incidence rate is calculated by taking the total number of cases in a county over the past seven days, divided by seven to get a daily average. That number is divided by the U.S. Census Bureau county population and multiplied by 100,000 to get the incidence per 100,000 people.
Hospitalizations increased, but city not worried about capacity
Lexington reported 38 new hospitalizations over the past week, the second-most in a single week since the pandemic first reached Lexington. But the curve of active hospitalizations among Lexington residents “has remained relatively flat,” Hall said.
Fayette County has a capacity of 2,185 licensed hospital beds and 367 ICU beds, according to state data.
“We are not aware of any new concerns that hospitals have about capacity,” Hall said. “They are watching their numbers closely. Some of their cases are residents who live in other counties.”
This story was originally published October 19, 2020 at 11:35 AM.