Health officials warn Eastern Kentucky is at a COVID-19 tipping point

Pike County didn’t have its first COVID-19 case until April 1, but health leaders say the largest county in Eastern Kentucky is at a tipping point less than two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Pike County Health Department director Tammy Riley reported 432 active cases Thursday, up from 121 a month ago.

Dr. Fadi Al Akhrass, Pikeville Medical Center’s director of infectious diseases, said the hospital has 67 COVID-19 patients, with 21 patients in the Intensive Care Unit and 15 on mechanical ventilation.

There have been 19 coronavirus-related deaths in the county, including two in a 24-hour span at Tug Valley ARH in South Williamson as of Thursday.

Pike County has an average of 51.6 cases per 100,000 people, which is more than double the number needed to qualify as a “red zone” county. The neighboring counties of Martin, Floyd, Knott, Johnson and Perry are also in the red zone, the most serious category for coronavirus incidence rates.

Riley said the county has seen a reduction in hospitalizations from earlier in the week, but it’s not due to recoveries.

“We are starting to see more individuals not recover from this virus,” she said.

Al Akharss said the number of hospitalizations is alarming.

“What’s important to us is how many patients will be in the hospital, how many patients are going to die and this is becoming the most alarming situation,” he said. “Currently, we see a spike in the number of deaths and the number of hospitalizations.”

Pikeville Medical Center is expanding its COVID-19 unit to an additional floor but the hospital still needs room to serve other patients, Al Akhrass warned.

Riley said a family member of hers had a heart attack this week and required ICU care at Pikeville Medical Center. She said the experience made her wonder what would’ve happened if there wasn’t a bed available or hospital staff to care for him.

“What if along that route for that recovery one doctor had been too sick and the ER was not able to take him? That bed hadn’t been available?” she said. “Our outcome would’ve been very, very different this morning, and that’s what we are all here to try to prevent.”

Dr. Aaron Crum, the hospital’s chief medical officer, said the ICU is usually about 85% full during this season. The hospital has not reached its ICU capacity, but Crum worries the flu season will put an additional strain on the hospital.

Maria Braman, the chief medical officer at Appalachian Regional Healthcare, said on Thursday the ICU at Highlands in Prestonsburg was full.

The entire ARH hospital system has seen an increase in patients, she said, warning that all of Eastern Kentucky’s hospitals could become overwhelmed.

Braman, Al Akhrass and Riley pleaded with the community to wear masks, social distance and practice hand hygiene.

“This is not a snooze,” Al Akhrass said. “This is a wake up call. We need to take all the steps to combat the virus. ... Masking, social distancing and hand hygiene will continue to be the best weapons we have. A vaccine is coming but it’s going to take time.”