Kentucky’s omicron surge is now ‘significantly if not rapidly declining’
The number of new COVID-19 cases and the statewide rate of people testing positive are now solidly declining in Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear said on Monday.
“Cases are significantly if not rapidly declining,” the governor said in a news conference from the Capitol.
As it has played out in other states, the longevity of the current omicron surge — from beginning, to peak, and now decline — is significantly truncated compared with the delta surge last year, largely because omicron is much more transmissible. It took the delta variant roughly nine weeks to peak at 30,680 cases a week; omicron reached its weekly caseload peak of 81,473 in four weeks.
Last week, though it was the fifth-highest week for new cases on record, brought 46,639 new infections compared with 74,376 the week before. Last week’s comparably low number of cases may be somewhat artificial, however.
“We do believe the weather and a lot of things closing for a number of days last week and into the weekend may make the drop in cases look a little bit larger than it would otherwise be,” Beshear said. “There was a lot of testing that was closed, so it’s likely that the number of cases last week would not have been as low as it is.”
While an exponential number of new COVID-19 cases are still being recorded daily — 8,512 new cases were reported over the weekend, and 3,835 were confirmed on Monday — the statewide positivity rate has dropped day over day for two consecutive weeks, a sure sign the omicron surge is receding in Kentucky. The commonwealth peaked at 33.1% on Sunday, Jan. 23.
The percentage of positive tests, a seven day rolling average, had fallen to 23.51% on Monday, down from 23.95% on Sunday, and 24.58% by Saturday.
Hospitalizations, Beshear said, are also showing a “real downward trend,” though the decline is not as sharp as cases. Over the last seven days, coronavirus hospitalizations dropped by 7%, he said, adding that 2,124 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 on Monday (down 221 people from Friday), 414 people were in an intensive care unit (40 fewer than a week ago), and 207 are on a ventilator.
Meanwhile, the number of people seeking vaccinations is “definitely slowing,” Beshear said; at the height of the delta and omicron surges, upwards of 7,000 people would get a dose in any given weekend, and on weekdays, typically more than 3,000 people. Weekends now bring closer to 5,000 people getting doses, and weekdays, 1,000 or less.
Though he didn’t immediately have specifics, “it’s certainly under half of what we were seeing probably on a daily basis during the surge,” he said.
A little over 55% of the state population is fully vaccinated and 23% of residents have received a booster, according to the Kentucky Department for Public Health. Younger Kentuckians are the least vaccinated: 21% of kids ages 5 to 11 have gotten at least one dose, and 47% of 12- to 15-year-olds and 51% of 16- and 17-year-olds are at least partially vaccinated.
This story was originally published February 7, 2022 at 4:59 PM.
