Beshear says CDC’s previous COVID map was wrong. Here’s more, plus latest state data
Updating Kentuckians on the state of the coronavirus pandemic Thursday, Gov. Andy Beshear revealed a county-by-county map that looked radically different from the previous week’s.
That’s because of what the governor described as a significant “processing error” by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC’s previous map, released Oct. 27, put six Kentucky counties into the “high” category for COVID-19 community level and more than doubled the number of counties rated at “medium” community levels — 57 in all.
The CDC’s community level measure is meant to gauge the impact COVID-19 is having on a county. It tracks the rate of new cases, how many positive individuals were admitted to hospitals and how many are taking up inpatient beds. It is meant to shape public health guidance, with public indoor masking recommended for most people at the highest community level.
But Thursday, Beshear said the previous CDC map had missed the mark and was wildly inaccurate.
“It made it look that we’d gotten worse on the map really from week to week,” Beshear said Thursday. “But the CDC’s admitted they made a processing error, and in fact, our map looks much better.”
During the news conference, the governor instead referred to a new county-by-county map, updated effective Oct. 28, that showed the state blanketed in green, indicating low COVID-19 community levels.
There were 13 Kentucky counties at medium for COVID-19, and none fell into the high category. Beshear’s map was compiled by the Kentucky Department for Public Health, he said.
Monday morning, the federal agency acknowledged there was an error in an email to the Herald-Leader.
“On October 27th, 2022 CDC identified a data processing issue with Kentucky’s weekly aggregate data report. As a byproduct, case rates for select counties in Kentucky were artificially elevated, CDC took immediate measures to footnote the discrepancy on COVID Data Tracker. CDC took additional corrective actions and the data processing issue was resolved by the next weekly report on November 3rd, 2022,” a spokesperson wrote.
Where does Kentucky stand with COVID-19?
According to the latest available weekly totals from the Kentucky Department for Public Health, current as of Oct. 31, Kentucky saw 5,242 new cases, including 1,307 cases in individuals younger than 18. There were 61 new coronavirus deaths during the reporting week leading up to Oct. 31.
Kentucky’s positivity rate is sitting at 9.17%, according to the Kentucky Department for Public Health.
A full weekly summary from the department is available here.
What does the latest CDC map of Kentucky show?
In a weekend email, the Kentucky Department of Public Health said the latest CDC community levels map, updated Nov. 3, was correct. That map shows most of the state at low community levels. Still, 20 Kentucky counties are seeing medium COVID-19 community levels.
Another three Kentucky counties are experiencing high COVID-19 community levels. They are Harrison, Robertson and Letcher counties.
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Thursday, Beshear said “cases have really plateaued,” while acknowledging the metric as less reliable.
“This isn’t a perfect gauge or even what it used to be, but it does give us scales of magnitude compared to last waves or parts of this pandemic,” Beshear said.
Indeed, epidemiologists have said case numbers represent “the tip of the iceberg” of actual infections. Instead, they turn to tools like wastewater surveillance for a more consistent look than constantly fluctuating case numbers.
Test positivity is up again in Kentucky, according to Beshear, but that metric has problems, too.
“These are only PCR tests. These aren’t the at-home tests. These are the tests you take when you’re pretty sure you have it, and you’re trying to confirm it,” Beshear said.
Hospitalizations in Kentucky due to COVID-19 are “still incredibly low,” the governor noted. That measure doesn’t suffer from the same reporting problems as cases because the federal government collects the numbers directly from facilities. That said, hospitalizations are often weeks behind cases.
The number of COVID-19 patients being treated in Kentucky intensive care units and those who need ventilators to breathe is also low, Beshear reported Thursday.
The governor capped off his weekly report by urging those in the public to get their updated booster and seasonal flu shot, noting some school districts have had to close due to flu infections.
Monday, Fayette County Public Schools joined the growing list of school closures.
Where does Fayette County stand with COVID-19?
According to the latest data from the CDC, Fayette County is currently at a low COVID-19 community level, which comes with milder public health recommendations from the agency.
The CDC reported 242 new cases through Wednesday, with a positivity rate in Fayette County of 7.55%.
In its own report Oct. 31, the Lexington Fayette-County Health Department reported 269 new COVID-19 cases between Oct. 22 and Oct. 28, compared to 207 cases the prior week. There were no new deaths in its report.
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This story was originally published November 4, 2022 at 6:09 PM.