Cancer cases in Kentucky: American Cancer Society predicts increase across the state
The American Cancer Society predicts Kentucky to have 30,420 new cancer diagnoses in 2025, but state experts disagree with the forecast.
The American Cancer Society predicts the number of cancer diagnoses for each state and type of cancer across the U.S. at the beginning of each year. Kentucky has historically had the highest rate of cancer incidents and mortality in the country.
The analysis for 2025, released on Jan. 16, clocks the total number of cancer diagnoses in the country at 2.04 million cases for the upcoming year, with Kentucky looking towards almost 30,500 new cases.
The estimates are made using a formula that relies on historical data of cancer diagnosis, but that information is only current through 2021, said Eric Durbin, director of the Kentucky Cancer Registry.
It takes years to compile cancer incidence data. Because of that delay, predictions aren’t always accurate.
In 2022, the American Cancer Society report projected the commonwealth to see 30,370 new diagnoses, but the state only had 29,309 according to the Kentucky Cancer Registry. That’s a 3.6% discrepancy.
Leaders at the University of Kentucky Markey Cancer Center — Dr. Mark Evers, Dr. Pamela Hull and Tod Burus — said the pandemic also has caused a skew in the prediction numbers.
“The COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary, artificial decrease in the rates of new cancer cases in 2020 and 2021 across the country — not because there were actually fewer cancers, but because it caused delays in people getting their regular cancer screenings and other healthcare,” the researchers said in an email to the Herald Leader.
“In particular, Kentucky still seemed to experience significant under-diagnosis of lung, bladder, and uterine cancers and Leukemia in 2021.”
That artificial drop in cancer incidents could have long lasting ramifications. Cancers with earlier diagnosis have higher survival rates. Delays in cancer screening lead to later stage diagnosis, which has a higher mortality rate in some cancers — like cervical, bladder and lung.
Durbin said the pandemic also caused a delay in state registries reporting cancer incidents.
While the American Cancer Society report projects the total number of cancer cases for the year, he said, age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates are a more valuable measure — which the report does not predict.
Age-adjusted rates account for the age of a particular population, which is important because age is the most significant risk factor for most cancers.
Nonetheless, Durbin said the annual report is useful as a rough estimate of the cancer burden, but it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Compared to the predictions for 2024, the American Cancer Society estimated the following for Kentucky in 2025:
- Overall cancer diagnoses will decrease by 0.7.%
- Female breast cancer will decrease by 0.7.%
- Colorectal cancer will decrease by 1.9.%
- Lung and bronchus cancer will decrease by 3.3.%
- Leukemia will increase by 13.5.%
- Melanoma will increase by 6.7.%
- Non-Hodgkin lymphoma will increase by 3.6.%
- Prostate cancer will increase by 17.9.%
- Urinary bladder cancer will increase by 2.4.%
- Uterine cancer will increase by 1.1.%
Durbin said the state has seen a steady decline in colorectal cancer and lung cancer incidents across the commonwealth due largely to a push for more screening.
“I don’t really see anything particularly unexpected, but I might take exception with some of their estimates,” he said.
“Frankly, I don’t have a lot of faith in the accuracy of these projected increases.”