‘Worst case scenario:’ Fayette schools might not return until cases drop or vaccine arrives.

Fayette County Superintendent Manny Caulk said Friday that under the “worst case scenario,” the school district may be looking at continuing remote learning until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available.

However, the school board took no action Friday at a special called meeting to discuss returning to school. Caulk did not say what he will recommend about a return to in-person learning on Monday at the board’s monthly regular meeting.

Just before midnight Friday, Caulk sent a letter to families noting that Lexington-Fayette County Commissioner of Health Kraig Humbaugh said Fayette County will unlikely receive a state color-coded rating of yellow which carries a recommendation of in-person learning as long as the University of Kentucky is in session.

“Strict adherence to the state guidance would mean our schools would remain virtual for at least the remainder of the 2020-21 school year,” Caulk said in the letter. “Our school district faces difficult decisions at our school board meeting on Monday, September 28.”

Caulk said after Friday’s meeting that the school board and district leadership team are processing information from the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department and University of Kentucky to develop a recommendation that protects the health and safety of students and staff “while ensuring our students have opportunities to learn at high levels.”

Late Friday afternoon, Fayette County moved from the worst or ‘red’ level in a state color-coded system that helps determine whether districts can return in-person to orange, the next to worst.

Once a district reaches the red level, the state recommendation says the district would not be able to resume in-person learning or other school activities until the county reaches the yellow level, and Caulk said that was unlikely at the current level of positive cases Friday morning. Yellow, with 9.9 or fewer cases per 100,000 people, allows in-person or remote learning and sports, but with heightened mitigation steps as coordinated by local officials, school administrators and public health leaders.

On Thursday, Fayette County had 26.3 cases per 100,000 people, according to the state’s dashboard. The red threshold is 25.0. On Friday afternoon, Fayette County had 24.8 cases per 100,000 people.

“It’s going to be very difficult and highly improbable based on current practices for us to get to yellow. So you have to activate remote learning, that’s currently what we are doing,” Caulk said.

The regular monthly school board meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. Monday. The board has previously indicated that a vote about returning to in-person learning will be taken Monday.

The rapid rise of Fayette County’s incidence level this week has been previously attributed largely to the virus’ spread among University of Kentucky students.

However, UK officials said Friday they have been able to manage the coronavirus, with exposures largely limited to people affiliated with UK.

Lance Poston, co-project director for UK Health Corps, told school board members that the number of exposures among non-UK affiliated individuals who live in Fayette County represents only 5.5 percent of total exposures in the UK system – meaning the university is not contributing in any substantive way to what would be characterized as community spread.

There have been about 1,300 positive cases among students since July, UK officials said.

Guidance regarding high school sports in “red level” status counties from both the Kentucky High School Athletic Association and the Kentucky Department for Public Health state that sports and extracurricular activities should be suspended the week after the county hits the red level. The guidance from the KHSAA is a recommendation, not a requirement.

Some districts had canceled games against Fayette County teams for Friday as state guidance suggests for counties at the red level, but the district had not suspended athletics as of Friday. High school chief James McMillin said since Aug. 24, 13 student athletes and no coaches have tested positive. McMillin said 39 student athletes were under quarantine as of Friday morning. Five Fayette coaches were under quarantine Friday.

Gov. Andy Beshear said Thursday that UK students should be counted in Fayette County’s positive cases because they are members of the community.

Humbaugh told the school board Friday that K-12 school age children are likely to have milder illness or not have illness at all. Fayette County has had about 100 overall positive cases a day in September. About half are university students, Humbaugh said. UK and Transylvania University have had widespread surveillance testing. A quarter of Lexington’s positive cases are attributed to college students. Kids under 18 are less than ten percent of all positive cases.

If the numbers stay the same, it will be difficult for Lexington’s incidence rates to drop, he said. If University students are taken out of the equation, then the rest of the cases in Lexington have plateaued. If UK students are taken out of the data, Fayette County would have still been at the orange level.

At that level, Beshear has said, school districts should be careful, perhaps sending small groups back to school at first and then a hybrid model of virtual and in-person.

Caulk said under the state system, Fayette which had been red for most of the week, would have to get to the yellow level before resuming in-person learning and that will be difficult.

“I think it’s premature to say my thoughts,” school board chair Stephanie Spires said after Friday’s meeting. “ I want to hear more from the district leadership about how they envision returning students to the classroom.”

Board members Christy Morris and Tyler Murphy said Friday they didn’t yet know what recommendation they would be asked to vote on.

“I don’t think it needs to be an ‘all or nothing” choice,’” Murphy said. “Does this include creating opportunities for small group pods for students who need additional supports? Getting creative with our facilities and community centers? The key talent in our district is found in our educators—they, and our families who also see what’s happening on the ground need to be involved developing some of these solutions.”

The Courier-Journal reported Friday that Jefferson County Public Schools Superintendent Marty Pollio said that if COVID rates decline, he would ask that school board to discuss target return dates based on student age. Elementary students return Oct. 22, sixth and ninth-grade students return Oct. 29 and other grades return Nov. 2. A vote on firm return dates based on improved public health data would take place at another time, the newspaper reported.

In Lexington, Humbaugh said staff will be at more risk than students of having severe disease if the district goes back to in-person learning.

The jury is still out on private and parochial schools in Lexington since they haven’t been open to in person learning long, Humbaugh said. He said it was difficult to tell where those students who had tested positive have gotten the disease.

Starting Monday, under a state emergency order, K-12 families have to report their children’s positive COVID cases within 24 hours of receiving the test results.

Caulk said the district is then required to report the number of positive cases and number of quarantines to the state, regardless of whether students are learning virtually or back on campus.

Caulk told families that if their child tests positive for COVID-19, they can call or email the district or fill out an online form.

This story was originally published September 25, 2020 at 11:43 AM.