Georgia Senate runoffs: Whom do oddsmakers like in the closely watched elections?

After President-elect Joe Biden’s victory over President Donald Trump in the presidential election was made official by the Electoral College earlier this week, all eyes are now on the Georgia Senate runoffs.

The runoff elections in Georgia, which Biden narrowly won in the general election, will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the U.S Senate in 2021. Republican Sen. David Perdue faces off against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler faces Democratic candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock.

The upcoming U.S. Senate is currently 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. If both Ossoff and Warnock win, leaving the chamber split 50-50, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would serve as the tie breaking vote, narrowly giving Democrats control.

Poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight shows Perdue with a narrow 0.1 percentage point lead, with Warnock up 0.3 percentage points.

But what do the oddsmakers say?

Betting odds

Loeffler and Perdue both are favored to win their runoffs on several major betting sites, including BetOnline.AG.

Loeffler’s -145 odds imply a 59% chance of her defeating Warnock. Perdue is viewed as an even stronger favorite with -225 odds for an implied probability of 69%.

The site also features odds for how close the pair of runoffs will be. The line is set at over/under 2 percentage points for the Loeffler/Warnock runoff and 2.5 points for Perdue/Ossoff.

Political wagering has grown tremendously in the last four years and oddsmakers are seeing that carry over to the Georgia runoffs, said Adam Burns, BetOnline SportsBook Manager.

“Since the Electoral College vote on the 14th, we have seen action on these markets triple in terms of money coming in and expect that to continue until the it takes place in January,” Burns told McClatchy News. “Internationally, the ‘Trump’ effect and awareness of U.S. Politics keeps increasing and we see wagers from all over the world.”

Odds lean toward Republicans winning the runoffs on OddsChecker.com, but bettors are eyeing the underdog, OddsChecker spokespers on Tom Dodd said.

“Interestingly, sports bettors are marginally backing the underdog if we look at the data from the past 30 days,” Dodd told McClatchy News. “61% of all wagers are in favor of the Democrats pulling off an upset, while 39% are going with the GOP.”

Odds have not fluctuated much in the past month, Dodd said. Republicans remain the favorites among oddsmakers with their -143 odds, indicative of a 58% probability of winning.

Republicans have an even better chance according to oddsmakers at US-Bookies.com with a 73.3% implied chance of maintaining majority control of the Senate.

There is a minor change in the odds on US-Bookies.com, where Warnock’s chances have improved slightly. Implied probability for him to defeat Loeffler improved from 42% last week to 44% this week.

At one point, Loeffler had a 67% probability of winning, the site said.

“Betting odds from the end of November showed a nearly neck-and-neck race, but Loeffler soon widened her lead by the end of the recent debates,” a US-Bookies spokesperson said. “While Loeffler’s odds have not yet noticed any negative shifts following recent headlines, Warnock is trending favorably in the betting markets, which isn’t good news for the Republican incumbent.”

Perdue’s odds have remained steady at 1/2, implying a 67% chance of winning over Ossoff.

Early voting began Monday for the runoffs and the election will be held Jan. 5. As of Thursday, more than 914,000 votes had been cast in the runoff — about 12% of registered voters, according to the U.S. Elections Project, which tracks voting data.

This story was originally published December 17, 2020 at 2:29 PM with the headline "Georgia Senate runoffs: Whom do oddsmakers like in the closely watched elections?."