Trump, COVID-19 and rematches highlight Kentucky state House races
President Donald Trump’s handling of COVID-19, the economy and other issues has been front and center in many of Kentucky’s state House races this fall.
Even though state lawmakers have little influence on national policies, their elections often focus on national issues, especially the economy, said Stephen Voss, associate political science professor at the University of Kentucky.
Voss said Trump was a major factor in Republicans’ takeover of the state House in 2016 for the first time in 95 years as the GOP played up then-President Barack Obama’s so-called “War on Coal” and painted Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton as an extreme liberal.
“It’s tougher this year for Republicans to highlight the economy and coal because both are having a rough time now and Republicans certainly don’t want to talk about COVID-19 with all its problems nationally,” said Voss. “But Trump remains popular in Kentucky, especially in rural areas.”
In 2016, Trump took 62.5 percent of the vote in Kentucky over Clinton. He won every Kentucky county except the two most populous — Jefferson and Fayette.
Republican House candidates in rural areas think having Trump on the ballot will help them again this year.
A poll released Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which accurately predicted Kentucky’s close race for governor last year, showed Trump with a commanding lead over Biden in Kentucky — 56 percent for Trump and 39 percent for Biden.
Trump leads in all areas of the state except Louisville, the poll found. Trump is strongest in the rural areas of Eastern Kentucky (66 percent to 28 percent) and Western Kentucky (65 percent to 30 percent).
In some Kentucky counties this fall, the GOP is trying to make sure Trump’s often-criticized handling of the coronavirus pandemic does not hurt party candidates in the state. They are providing their door-to-door campaign volunteers with “talking points” about Trump and COVID-19, claiming that Trump “has led a bold coronavirus response.”
Republican House candidates in many of the urban areas aren’t as talkative about Trump.
Kentucky Republicans expect to keep their stronghold over the state House in the Nov. 3 general elections, but Democrats hope to take away the GOP’s super majority in the chamber. Any party that controls at least 60 of the chamber’s 100 members can pass tax legislation in odd-numbered years and constitutional amendments without any support from the minority party.
Here’s a look at some of the House races to watch as Republicans enter the fall contests with a 61-39 super majority in the chamber. Of the 100 state House seats, 65 are contested this fall.
Trump and Beshear both won House districts in Jefferson County
Democrats like to point out that Trump won the 33rd House District in northeastern Jefferson County by 8 percentage points in 2016, but Democrat Andy Beshear took the county last year by 14 points in Kentucky’s race for governor over Republican incumbent Matt Bevin.
Their intended message is that the district is moving blue.
“Yeah, and they don’t tell you that Republicans like Attorney General Daniel Cameron and state Treasurer Allison Ball won the district last year,” said Republican Jason Nemes, who has represented the district since 2016.
Voter registration figures show the district is slightly Republican — 45 percent GOP, 44 percent Democrat and 11 percent other.
Trump has not been mentioned in any of Nemes’ campaign ads.
His Democratic opponent this fall is Margaret Plattner, a retired lieutenant commander in the U.S. Navy who has held several state positions, including deputy commissioner of Veterans Affairs, deputy commissioner of vehicle regulation and legislative liaison for the Kentucky Department of Military Affairs and Kentucky Transportation Cabinet.
“More than Trump,” said Plattner, “the issue on everybody’s mind is when and how we recover from COVID-19, getting people back on their feet.”
She said Beshear is well received in the district because of his handling of the virus. “The people believe he’s the right person for the job and I, with a longtime career in state government, could help him carry on the needed recovery,” she said.
Nemes devotes a full page on his campaign website to information about COVID-19. “Kentucky’s Republican lawmakers continue to act with bold leadership that offers real solutions for all those in need during this difficult time,” it says.
Democrat Suzanne Kugler, who is trying to oust Republican incumbent Kevin Bratcher in the House 29th District in southeastern Jefferson County, said “the Bevin effect” may be more prominent in the race than a Trump factor.
“It’s some Trump and a lot of Bevin ,” she said.
As a retired public teacher who joined thousands of her colleague in protesting the former Republican governor’s pension plans for teachers, Kugler said more Democrats are needed in the House to work for education and educators.
Bratcher, a former instructor at Kentucky Tech-Jefferson Campus who has represented the district since 1996, said Democrats tried to tie him with Bevin two years ago and were unsuccessful.
“Bevin is yesterday’s news and I don’t see him as a factor in this race,”said Bratcher. “Trump is still pretty popular in my district but I don’t know if he is as popular here as he was four years ago.”
The district is 47 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican and 9 percent other. Trump got about 56 percent of the district’s votes in 2016, according to the state Republican Party. Beshear won it by a margin of 11 percentage points.
Trump political coattails in Western Kentucky?
Republicans are hoping Trump’s popularity in Western Kentucky will help their state House candidates.
Democrat Rob Wiederstein, a retired attorney and judge of Henderson, won the 11th House District seat in 2018. The district includes parts of Daviess and Henderson counties.
This fall, Wiederstein faces Republican Jonathan Dixon of Corydon, owner of Fence Pros.
The district is Democratic — 60 percent to 32 percent Republican but Republicans think having Trump and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on the ballot could help Dixon.
In the 10th Distict, which covers Breckinridge, Hancock and part of Hardin counties, Democratic incumbent Dean Schamore, a small business owner, is being challenged by Republican Josh Calloway of Irvington.
Schamore beat Calloway in 2018, 8,575 votes to 8,018 votes.
The district is split on party registration, with Democrats and Republicans holding about 45 percent each. Trump took about 66 percent of the district’s votes four years ago.
Schamore, who has been in the House since 2014, is counting on his experience in the legislature to overcome Calloway.
A rematch of a 2018 race that was extremely tight
Democrat Jim Glenn, a business administration professor at Owensboro Community and Technical College, won his 2018 House race against Republican DJ Johnson, an operations manager for a senior community center, by one vote in the 13th District that includes part of Daviess County.
A recanvass didn’t change the outcome and a recount, requested by Johnson, ended in a tie. That left a special House committee to decide the winner.
Johnson later withdrew from the contest and then-Gov. Matt Bevin appointed him to be a legislative liaison.
Glenn had held the seat for about 10 years before Johnson defeated him in 2016.
Glenn and Johnson are back at it again this year. The district is 56 percent Democratic. Trump got 54.2 percent of the vote in it four years ago.
An Eastern Kentucky narrow winner in 2018 faces challenger
Freshman Democrat Kathy Hinkle of Louisa won her 2018 race over Republican incumbent Jill York by five votes in the 96th House District — 7,136 to 7,131.
Democrats hold a slight lead over Republicans — 48 percent to 45 percent — in the district made up of Carter and Lawrence counties. Trump won Carter with 73.8 percent of the vote in 2016 and Lawrence with 79.7 percent.
This year, Hinkle, former executive director for Kentucky Child Assault Prevention Agency, is being challenged by Republican Patrick Flannery, an Olive Hill attorney and former county attorney for Carter County.
Beat the daughter in 2018, try to beat the father this year
Two years ago, Republican Deanna Frazier, an audiologist, beat Democrat Morgan Eaves , who now is legislative affairs director for the state Labor Cabinet, in a squeaker — 8,111 votes to 8,087 votes.
Frazier’s opponent this fall is attorney Mike Eaves, the father of Morgan Eaves.
Voter registration in the 81st House district that covers part of Madison County is 48 percent Democrat and 41 percent Republican. Trump got 54 percent of the district vote four years ago.
Open House seats in Central and Northeastern Kentucky
Republican Ryan Dotson, senior pastor of Lighthouse World Outreach Center, defeated incumbent Les Yates in June’s primary election for the 73rd District, which includes Clark and part of Madison counties.
Dotson’s opponent in the fall election is Democrat Kenny Blair, a firefighter.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, 47 percent to 43 percent. Trump amassed 67 percent of the district vote in 2016.
Open House seats to watch in Eastern Kentucky
Democrat incumbent Chris Harris decided to run this year for the state Supreme Court instead of the state House.
That left an open seat in the 93rd House district made up of Martin and part of Pike counties. Candidates are Democrat Rod Varney, principal of Belfrey High School, and Republican Norma Kirk-McCormick, former vocational rehabilitation counselor for the state Department for the Blind.
Varney bills himself as a pro-life Christian and supporter of gun rights. Kirk-McCormick features a photo of her with Trump on her Facebook page.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, 54 percent to 41 percent, but Trump carried the district in 2016 with 84 percent of the vote.
Democrat Cluster Howard decided not to run for re-election this year in the 91st District that covers Breathitt, Estill, Lee, Owsley and part of Madison counties.
That open seat this fall pits Republican Bill Wesley, chaplain of the Estill County police department, against Democrat Paula Clemons-Combs, a Breathitt County High School teacher.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, 52 percent to 44 percent, but Trump won the district four years ago with 75 percent of the vote.
On Feb. 25 of this year, Republican Richard White won the open seat for House District 99 in a special election to replace Democrat Rocky Adkins, who left the House to join the Beshear administration as a senior advisor.
In the special election, White, who owns a wood products business, defeated Democrat Bill Redwine, a former vice president assistant of auxiliary services at Morehead State University. White got 56 percent of the vote in a district that is 50 percent Democrat and 44 percent Republican.
White and Redwine are competing against each other again this fall for a full two-year term.
This story was originally published October 21, 2020 at 12:10 PM.
