Poll shows McConnell with single-digit lead over McGrath in KY with two weeks to go
A new public poll shows U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell leading Amy McGrath by 9 points in Kentucky with just two weeks to go before Election Day.
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 625 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It found that 51% of likely voters supported McConnell while 42% favored McGrath. Another 4% supported Libertarian Brad Barron and 3% were undecided.
Among the respondents, 41% said they were Republicans, 28% said they were Democrats and 27% said they were independent.
McGrath is considered a significant underdog in the race — polling by Quinnipiac University had her down 12 percentage points in September — and the Mason Dixon poll found that 45% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of her, while 43% said the same of McConnell. McGrath led by 2 percentage points among women and 5 percentage points among voters between 18 and 34.
Democrats are hopeful that the ease of voting — polls are open three weeks leading up to the election and everyone was able to request a ballot by mail — will bring out enough of their base to create an upset on Election Day, especially as support for President Donald Trump has started to slip.
A Tuesday Mason Dixon poll on the presidential race in Kentucky had President Donald Trump up 54% to 38% on former Vice President Joe Biden. In 2016, Trump won by 30 percentage points, which suggests Trump’s support has slipped over the course of his term.
He has a lot of room to fall: Kentucky has not elected a Democrat to federal office statewide since 1992.
McGrath led McConnell in the Louisville metro area (which includes Bullitt, Oldham, Trimble, Henry, Shelby, Spencer and Nelson Counties) by a 56% to 36% margin, but she trailed in every other region, including 45% to 48% in the Lexington/Bluegrass area (which includes Woodford, Franklin, Anderson, Scott, Harrison, Bourbon, Nicholas, Clark, Madison, Montgomery, Garrard, Jessamine, Boyle, Mercer, Washington, Marion, Powell and Estill counties).
