They’re back: Five things to watch as the Kentucky legislature returns to Frankfort
The Kentucky General Assembly returns to Frankfort on Tuesday for its 60-workday 2022 session.
This will be the third year that Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear proposes a state budget and makes other policy recommendations to a legislature controlled by veto-proof Republican majorities who don’t wish to see him re-elected in November 2023.
Fortunately for lawmakers, Kentucky is in good fiscal shape this time around (except for that pesky $26.9 billion in combined long-term pension debt for state workers and school teachers). State economists last month predicted the General Fund will close the current fiscal year on June 30 with a $1.9 billion surplus.
With that context — and keeping in mind that new issues are sure to erupt almost immediately — here are five subjects to watch between Tuesday and final adjournment on April 14.
State budget
There is only one thing that legislators are required by law to do during their session: Write a spending plan for the state government.
Traditionally, legislators produce a two-year budget during even-numbered years, like this one. Based on estimates from state economists, for the General Fund that pays for most state services, they’ll get $14 billion in Fiscal Year 2023 and $14.6 billion in Fiscal Year 2024. For the Road Fund that pays for most transportation projects, it’s $1.71 billion the first year and $1.67 billion the second year.
The last time state budget officials testified to lawmakers, they reported an existing state budget “rainy day” reserve fund of more than $1.1 billion. Some projections call for that fund to reach $3 billion before this year is over. The state also has about $1 billion left to spend from the American Rescue Plan of 2021, one of the federal stimulus packages released during the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are different reasons for Kentucky’s good tidings, including the massive federal relief spending and two years of conservative budgets enacted by a cautious legislature. But the bottom line is that after two decades of budget cuts and salary freezes in state government, Kentucky has some big money to play with.
Look for the governor’s budget proposal next week to include not just perennial favorites, like more spending on education and economic development, but also bonus pay for essential workers and long-sought raises and staffing increases in state government. This is likely to include assistance for beleaguered social workers, public defenders, Kentucky State Police, corrections officers and others who have been stretched thin.
However, a budget plan from a Democratic governor isn’t likely to go far in the Republican legislature.
Some lawmakers have talked about using some of the surplus funds to pay down Kentucky’s pension debt a little faster than the current 30-year plan. Scheduled repayment of the pension debt is guaranteed to absorb a few billion dollars from the two-year budget bill, anyway.
GOP leaders are cautioning Kentuckians to not expect greater spending that would match the greater revenue. Senate Majority Leader Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown, recently told WKYT that much of the surplus could stay in the rainy day fund because lawmakers are wary of committing it to recurring costs, like state worker salaries.
“A lot of us feel like we’re living in a little bit of a false, propped-up economy, where there are a lot of federal dollars flowing through,” Thayer said. “We’re still not back to a realistic economy.“
Political redistricting
Republican legislative leaders have said the first order of business for redistricting will be moving the candidate filing deadline for the 2022 elections from this Friday to Jan. 25. That legislation is expected to be introduced on Tuesday, the session’s first day, according to House leadership spokeswoman Laura Leigh Goins.
Lawmakers are required to redraw legislative boundaries to conform with population shifts as documented in the 2020 census. Unlike some other states, the bulk of redistricting work in Kentucky is done through a partisan process, putting Republicans in the driver’s seat.
House Republican leaders last week unveiled their proposed map for their chamber’s districts, which is subject to tweaks in coming days. Senate GOP leadership is expected to reveal their own map and a map of the newly drawn U.S. congressional districts on Tuesday.
Republicans praised their proposed House districts map for its compactness compared to previous Democratic-drawn maps; an increase in majority-minority districts; and strict adherence to required population limits.
Democrats have complained that the maps were drawn to intentionally hurt their party. Also, they said, by releasing the maps so close to the filing deadline, Republicans gave them little time for consideration and debate.
Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey, D-Louisville, said Monday that he has yet to see proposed Senate district maps, but he’s heard they will be passed on Saturday.
“My worry is it’s going to move too quickly and not with enough transparency,” McGarvey said. “These maps are going to be here for 10 years. They determine how everyone in Kentucky is represented and reflected in their government. I think it needs the transparency and debate that it’s due.”
Tax reform
Bookcases around the state Capitol groan under the weight of reports issued by tax reform task forces over the many years.
But when it comes time to finally pass sweeping tax legislation, lawmakers typically disagree on who should pay more and who should pay less, and in what ways. Plus, because state revenue is usually tight, there is little space for experimentation.
This year could be different, in part because the previously mentioned billions of dollars in surplus gives lawmakers some wiggle room. House Speaker David Osborne, R-Prospect, said his current goal is to get the budget passed out of the House quickly so that tax reform can be taken up as a separate issue.
Sen. Mike Wilson, R-Bowling Green, is among those calling for a shift away from reliance on income taxes and toward sales taxes and other consumption taxes. A recent report issued by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce likewise recommended lower income taxes and higher sales taxes, including the possibility of adding a local option sales tax if cities or counties choose to.
Critics, such as the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy in Berea, warn that such a tax shift favors the wealthy at the expense of the poor, because the poor have to spend most of their money just to survive, while the wealthy — who currently face higher income taxes — are able to save a higher proportion of their money.
Abortion access
The Kentucky legislature already has enacted a long list of abortion limits, including a so-called “trigger law” that would ban the procedure in most instances if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this summer. The high court is weighing a challenge to Mississippi’s state ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
However, Kentucky women still would have access to medical abortion, through prescription medicine, if not surgical abortion. The Food and Drug Administration last month eliminated a key restriction to allow patients to receive abortion pills by mail after telehealth consultations with their medical providers.
That no longer would be true under an omnibus anti-abortion bill proposed by Rep. Nancy Tate, R-Brandenburg.
The day before the FDA’s decision, Tate walked lawmakers at a committee hearing through what she calls the Humanity in Healthcare Act 2022. Tate laid out a series of new restrictions the bill would set on overall access to abortion in Kentucky, including banning the receipt of abortion pills by mail.
“We are elected, and we are here to protect and service the citizens of the commonwealth. That includes the unborn fetus and unborn infant that is a God-given life,” Rep. Ryan Dotson, R-Winchester, said at the committee hearing.
Tornado relief
One of the first acts from the legislature is expected to be a bipartisan relief package for the Western Kentucky communities devastated by the Dec. 10 tornadoes that killed 77 people and destroyed hundreds of homes, stores, churches and other buildings.
Osborne told WLEX late last month that “We’ve had considerable conversation with the governor and the governor’s office about things that will be needed to deal with the disaster in Western Kentucky.” On Monday, he said that some storm-related legislation could be filed this week.
Apart from state assistance with rebuilding costs in the years ahead, local school officials are asking the state to support school districts in the region by not reducing their per-pupil SEEK funding despite an anticipated loss in student enrollment in coming months. With displaced families scattered, it could be a while before attendance returns to normal, local school officials say.
House Minority Leader Joni Jenkins, D-Shively, told reporters on Monday that legislative leaders shortly would be speaking with the governor to discuss legislation related to the disaster.
This story was originally published January 3, 2022 at 3:56 PM.
