Biden, Beshear, inflation, abortion: a narrative battle in this ‘purple’ Lexington district
If you were to ask Scott Lasley, a political science professor at Western Kentucky University and GOP candidate for magistrate in Warren County, at the start of the year how Republicans would fare in state legislative elections this year he would have given you a different answer.
“Up until 6 months or so ago, the Republicans had everything going in their favor. You had an unpopular president, inflation, and it was a midterm election – which usually bodes well for the minority party,” Lasley said. “Since then, the tide has turned.”
The overturning of the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade, falling gas prices, a president now punching above once extremely low and still relatively low approval ratings, former president Donald Trump’s lingering grip on the GOP, revelatory hearings regarding the January 6 attempted insurrection – all of these things are contributing to uncertainty about a once-certain red wave nationally and at the state level.
Given the nationalization of local and state politics, candidates in “purple” districts like Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson, D-Lexington, are hoping that uncertainty applies to their races. Abortion and criticisms of Republican extremism in the wake of Jan. 6 are often discussed at voters’ front doors, she said.
Could that make a difference for Kentucky Democrats, who can claim the governor’s chair, but have been boxed out of legislative relevance by massive GOP majorities? Stevenson thinks so.
“When you talk to some voters, they just kinda want you to get down to brass tacks and they’ll immediately ask ‘are you a Democrat or Republican?’ In the past, I’ve found that when people ask that question, they did not like the answer that I was a Democrat. This election cycle, I’ve found the opposite,” Stevenson said.
And that’s just what happened when Beverly Cooper, a 77-year-old real estate agent in Georgetown, answered her door.
“Yay,” Cooper said when Stevenson answered that she was a Democrat. “We’ve got to do something to get this straight. It’s crazy what people believe these days.”
Generic congressional ballot polling, a metric often used to gauge the political mood of the country, has started to swing toward Democrats in the wake of the Dobbs ruling. Data website 538 estimates that Americans now prefer Democrats by just over one percentage point. Rep. Jason Nemes, R-Louisville, who helped lead the House GOP’s recruiting efforts this cycle, acknowledges that the needle has shifted on a national level, but doesn’t think that’ll affect House Republicans as they try to grow their already impressive majority.
Nemes pointed to research from a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showing that voters in swing districts preferred Republicans by a sizable margin.
Another case in point for Stevenson’s claim that 88th House District voters could be trending Democratic occurred near Jacobson Park in Lexington, a slightly Democratic-leaning part of the district.
When Stevenson’s Republican opponent, Jim Coleman, presented himself at the door of a registered Republican – potentially a lock for him – he joked that he hoped her dogs were registered as well. But the voter turned out to be seriously “struggling” with her support for Republicans. She was critical of the party’s rightmost fringe, and Coleman assured her that he shared her concerns.
“There’s a lot more we can do together than fighting each other. That’s what I’m all about,” Coleman said, who moments later would secure a “purple” voter’s support by being the first candidate to greet him in-person.
- Abortion: Stevenson is betting that the district is more in line with her abortion-rights voting record than the state’s current ban on abortion, which bans nearly all abortions, even in cases of rape and incest. Coleman, who supports a ban on abortion but with exceptions for health of the mother, rape and incest, says that the topic has not played a huge role on the campaign trail. Coleman says that “not one voter” has expressed dissatisfaction with state abortion policy to him. Crime, inflation and school performance play a much bigger role with voters Coleman’s spoken with, he said.
- Inflation: Inflation and the economy are issues that American voters, on average, trust Republicans to handle more than Democrats. Coleman says that both are playing a huge role on the campaign trail, and that he would support policies to get more Kentuckians to work and increase production in an effort to stem inflation.
- Biden: Joe Biden’s popularity, while on the rebound, is still low nationwide. And the president lost Kentucky in 2020 by a huge margin. At least on Coleman’s social media, Biden appears to be a ripe strategic target. Much of his Facebook posts on policy have been related to performance of the stock market under the Biden administration, and he’s posted the slogan “Let’s Go Brandon,” which is code for a four-letter expletive aimed at Biden, several times.
- Beshear: Stevenson is hoping that voters are able to discern between national and state leading Democratic figures come November. Beshear’s popularity in the state continues to hover around 60% according to available polling. Kentucky Democratic Party Chair Colmon Elridge said that voters in his home of Scott County might be more inclined to side with Beshear now that the governor has announced massive economic development deals in the state, given that the area has benefitted greatly from the presence of Toyota. Stevenson “I never hear about Biden, ever. I do hear about the governor a lot, and when I do hear about him I’d say 99% of the time it’s positive,” Stevenson said.
- McConnell: U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s popularity is among the lowest of any U.S. senator in their home state, though he remains one of the most powerful men in Washington, and has easily won all of his recent elections. On his campaign literature, Coleman included a photo of himself shaking hands with McConnell, who he calls a “mentor.” McConnell has won big in Kentucky, outperforming polling time and again, despite being one of the least popular senators in the country. It’s a practical argument to voters that he has access to power in a way that Stevenson does not.
“Putting him on there just shows that I’ve got access to the ‘batphone.’ I’ve got access to the highest power. He’s one of my mentors, and if I’m able to win I’ll have access to him, one of the most powerful men in Washington. For my district specifically, I’ll be able to get the resources we need to improve lives here in the 88th District.”
