Poll: Cameron ahead in GOP race for governor. But Beshear leads all challengers.
The first independent public poll in the 2023 Kentucky governor’s election bears good news for Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.
Results from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy show Beshear starting out well ahead of the field of Republicans who’ve lined up to try to unseat him in 2023. The incumbent governor is polling 9 percentage points ahead of the closest projected Republican competitor, Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Meanwhile, Cameron leads a crowded field of Republicans in the poll with 39% of likely GOP voters saying they’d back him if the primary – which takes place May 16 – were held today. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft and Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles logged 13% and 8%, respectively, with 28% still undecided.
Beshear’s approval rating, similarly measured in another poll, continues to poll around 60%. The latest Mason-Dixon results have 61% approving of Beshear’s job performance and only 29% disapproving. That’s improved from 55% approval and 36% disapproval in a Feb. 2021 poll.
Mason-Dixon, which has received high marks on its polls from data analysis website Fivethirtyeight.com, asked 625 registered Kentucky voters, from Jan. 18-25, who they would vote for if an election between Beshear and certain Republican challengers were held today. Respondents were able to weigh in on a hypothetical race pitting Beshear against Cameron, Quarles, Craft and Auditor Mike Harmon. The margin of error on the poll is roughly 4 percentage points.
The pollster sampled 404 people it deemed likely Republican primary voters to get its 2023 GOP primary results.
One poll can only tell the public so much about how the race might pan out, and a lot can change between late January and the upcoming election days. There are 110 days until the May primary and 285 days until Beshear – the presumptive Democratic nominee, though there are challengers – gets tested by the winning Republican candidate.
In a Mason-Dixon poll posted around the same time last election cycle, the same pollster had Beshear up over former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin by 8 percentage points. Beshear ended up beating Bevin by about 5,000 votes, or only 0.4 percentage points.
Beshear’s re-election challenge
As of this month, Beshear has a significant name ID advantage over the Republicans vying to challenge him.
96% of voters polled recognized Beshear’s name. 52% had a favorable opinion of him, compared to 23% with an unfavorable opinion.
Cameron had the highest name ID among the Republican field by far, with 83% of respondents recognizing his name, though only 30% had a favorable opinion. Cameron has garnered significant national and statewide attention for a fiery speech at the Republican National Convention, being the first Black man elected to his position and for his role as prosecutor in the case involving the police killing of Breonna Taylor in Louisville. He’s also scored an endorsement from former president Donald Trump, who won Kentucky by a significant margin in 2020.
By comparison, 47% of the respondents recognized Craft’s name, 43% recognized Quarles, and 39% recognized Harmon’s name.
In response to the question of who the respondents would vote for if the election were held today between Beshear, identified in the poll as a Democrat, against Cameron, a Republican, Beshear came out on top 49% to 40%, with 11% undecided.
In Beshear vs. Craft, Beshear came out on top by 25 percentage points, 57% to 32%. 11% of respondents were undecided. Craft fared the worst against Beshear of any of the four Republicans who were polled against the sitting governor.
Beshear led Quarles in the poll 52% to 35%, with 13% undecided.
Against Harmon, Beshear won the poll 53% to 33%. 14% of respondents were undecided.
Beshear’s job approval ratings are stronger among women than they are men – 66% to 55%. His net approval/disapproval exceeds 20 percentage points in every region of Kentucky, but is weakest in Eastern Kentucky where its 23 percentage points and is strongest in the Louisville area where it’s 33 percentage points.
Per the poll, 41% of registered Republicans approve of Beshear’s job performance while 46% disapprove.
Beshear’s campaign has topped $5 million raised for its re-election effort as of earlier this month. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Kentucky as a “lean Democrat” gubernatorial race. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics concurred.
University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stepehen Voss said the poll makes clear that although Kentucky now reliably puts Republicans in federal office, nobody should count Beshear out.
“Even if this poll overstates Democratic chances, as polls taken in Kentucky usually have, Beshear’s clearly entering the gubernatorial election strong enough that no one ought to be counting him out,” Voss said
The crowded primary
Though not quite as bullish on Cameron as a poll released by the attorney general’s own campaign team, Mason-Dixon shows Cameron well ahead of his Republican competition as of late January.
Voss said that the poll largely backs up Cameron’s earlier poll, but that it could be “soft.” 83% of respondents recognized his name, but only 30% knew they had a favorable opinion of him.
“Cameron’s strength in these early campaign polls primarily reflects his huge advantage in name recognition, compared to the other Republican competitors,” Voss said. “A lead built from name recognition can be soft, assuming rivals can attract enough campaign funding to build their own identity with the electorate. The Republican primary is still months away, so voters are not feeling a lot of pressure to do their homework so that they can make an informed choice.”
Per the results, Cameron’s 39% puts him up 26 percentage points over Craft’s 13%. Craft has already kicked off a media blitz through the television airwaves. Craft, who has access to immense wealth through her billionaire coal magnate and philanthropist husband Joe Craft, is expected by many to advertise more than anyone else in the race. However, Craft started her fundraising efforts with a record-breaking pickup from donors across the state.
She’s also picked up the endorsement of First Congressional District Congressman James Comer, a political ally of herself and her running mate Sen. Max Wise, R-Campbellsville.
Quarles, who’s finishing his second term as commissioner of agriculture, polled at 8%. Quarles recently posted a slow fundraising quarter, but started with a strong fundraising performance that had him close to $900,000 at the end of 2022. He’s yet to unload much of that money. Quarles has focused his campaign thus far on local political support, garnering more than 200 endorsements from local elected officials, including many county judge-executives.
“With over 200 endorsements and a lead with cash on hand, Ryan is the grassroots, people first candidate in this race. Our grassroots network is unmatched in this race coming from over a decade of Ryan putting in the hard work to earn the support and loyalty of Kentuckians from across the commonwealth,” Quarles campaign manager Jake Cox said in a statement on the poll.
Harmon stands at 5%, according to the poll. Relatively speaking, Harmon has fundraised very little, with only $26,000 cash on hand as of the beginning of this year, but he said he’s unfazed.
“Some trust in polls and piles of cash, but I will trust first in my lord and savior, Jesus Christ, and secondly in the people of Kentucky to see through the noise,” Harmon said in response to Cameron’s poll previously.
Following Harmon with 2% each is Somerset Mayor Alan Keck and Eric Deters, a retired Northern Kentucky attorney who has courted controversy in his run.
Keck kicked off his fundraising effort clearing $200,000 in a relatively short period of time.
Deters, who reported just over $6,000 cash on hand recently, has said he intends to significantly self-fund. Speakers at a conservative event he hosted in his native Northern Kentucky, cost him well over $100,000 a pop, according to the Courier-Journal.
Bob DeVore, David Cooper, and Robbie Smith are all polling at 1%, according to the poll.
Cameron’s campaign manager, Gus Herbert, said in a statement that the results are further proof that Cameron should be the nominee.
““Poll after poll demonstrates General Cameron is by far in the best position to unify the Republican Party and take on Andy Beshear in the General Election,” Herbert said.
This story was originally published January 26, 2023 at 6:00 AM.
