Ky crime data, produced by police & touted by Beshear, exaggerated drop in homicides
Crime reduction data produced by police and touted by Gov. Andy Beshear exaggerated the state’s reduction in homicides from 2021 to 2022.
According to new data provided by the Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD), a recently celebrated report produced by the Kentucky State Police (KSP) based on previously provided LMPD information undercounted the number of homicides in Jefferson County by 100. The latest report on 2022, which was released this month, showed that 64 homicides were reported in the state’s largest county instead of the actual 164 reported by LMPD.
The report stated that homicides in Kentucky had gone down from 647 in 2021 to 431 last year, but adjusting only for the undercount in Jefferson County the actual 2022 total is 531.
News reports heralded the homicide figure after the governor’s administration held a press conference on the matter.
Leaving no other county homicide report figures unchanged beyond Jefferson County’s total, the state would still register a significant decrease of 17.9% instead of the reported 33.4% drop.
A spokesperson for LMPD told the Herald-Leader that they sent the correct figure 164, with 157 of those being criminal homicides, to the state. Eight other homicide reports were logged in Jefferson County by other law enforcement agencies.
KSP begs to differ. Agency spokesperson Captain Paul Blanton claims that the 64 number was the one sent to them by the deadline for the report.
“While we are reviewing what was submitted, KSP relies on local law enforcement agencies to accurately and timely submit their statistics by the time the Crime in Kentucky report is tabulated. KSP triple-checked the numbers that were provided by LMPD. The 64 number is what LMPD reported to KSP by the report deadline,” Blanton wrote.
LMPD said that the agency is aware of “possible discrepancies” between their own numbers and the data referenced in the report and were working with the state to resolve the issues.
“We understand that there have been questions raised about the report and the numbers for LMPD, mainly regarding homicides and that there may be possible discrepancies. Three different LMPD units reviewed and double checked our numbers, and we believe the homicide data that we provided to the Commonwealth is accurate. We are in consultation with Kentucky State Police and the Kentucky Justice Cabinet to figure out why there is a discrepancy between our numbers,” an LMPD spokesperson wrote.
The spokesperson said they were also consulting with the state to see if any other data discrepancies exist in the KSP report.
A spokesperson for the Kentucky Justice & Public Safety Cabinet did not confirm whether an error had occurred somewhere down the line.
“The information listed in the report is based on the data reported to the state by the commonwealth’s law enforcement agencies,” the spokesperson wrote.
Though available crime data in the United States is limited and inconsistent, Kentucky’s overall crime data trends mirror the rest of the country, though an unusual increase in homicides occurred in 2020. Following years of relative stasis, homicide incidents rose by more than 25% in all regions of America during the COVID-19 pandemic, starting in 2020. In 2020, the number of homicides reported statewide, according to KSP, leaped from 405 to 640, a 58% increase.
2021 also saw record highs throughout the United States, but Kentucky’s overall number of reported homicides fell slightly from 2020 peaks. Violent crime and homicide numbers have markedly fallen in 2022 throughout the country, and Kentucky’s homicide rate, adjusting for the Jefferson County undercount, roughly mirrors that trend.
This story was originally published July 25, 2023 at 12:35 PM.
