After a bruising loss to Andy Beshear, what’s next for Daniel Cameron?
Daniel Cameron’s decisive loss to Andy Beshear in Kentucky’s governor’s race Tuesday certainly shows some chink in the armor of the young Black Republican shouldering so much promise.
But it’s a good bet that this won’t be the last time Cameron’s name appears on a commonwealth ballot.
Set to turn just 38 years old in two weeks, Cameron has ample time to reflect on his defeat, dust off the loss, spend time with his growing family and begin plotting a comeback before he even hits 40.
The question is how much a 5-point defeat to a popular incumbent with a fabled Kentucky family name will affect his impression with Republican voters – and potential GOP rivals – once he takes his next step, whether that be toward the U.S. Senate in 2026 or another shot at the governorship in 2027.
“Daniel Cameron’s future is very bright,” said Shane Noem, Mitch McConnell’s former political director. “He is a very talented and unifying presence within the Republican Party. Personally, I hope he runs for office again.”
“He’ll be in the discussion for pretty much any open seat that opens up,” added Tyler Glick, a Louisville-based Republican public affairs consultant. “He’s a talented guy and will continue to be in discussion for races. Republican voters still recognize he has significant talents.”
Jimmy Carter lost his first race for governor before rebounding to win on their second tries and later capturing the presidency.
Mitt Romney lost a U.S. Senate challenge to Ted Kennedy before winning the Massachusetts governorship and later being elected senator in Utah. And in Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill fell short in a race for governor before ascending to the U.S. Senate.
Which is to say that a single statewide loss doesn’t have to define a career.
Cameron – seen as a man in a hurry – took a risk in taking on a governor with a 60% approval rating and who was bolstered by his competent and visible responses to the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic and flooding and tornado disasters.
Though he pulled off the rare feat of landing endorsements from both McConnell and Donald Trump, Cameron found it difficult to nationalize the race to his advantage and staked out an unpopular position on an abortion ban without exceptions that allowed Democrats to paint him as extreme.
He was outspent 2-to-1 in the year’s most expensive election and Beshear ran a nearly error-free race. Incumbent governors usually don’t lose. Just one in the entire country fell in 2022; none lost in 2020.
“No matter what he does, (Cameron’s) going to be the guy who lost Kentucky with Trump’s backing,” said Matt Erwin, a Kentucky Democratic operative.
Cameron could’ve sailed to re-election as attorney general this year and bided his time.
“I think Cameron should’ve waited for either an open seat for governor or U.S. Senate,” said Alfredo Rodriguez, a Lexington-based GOP consultant who worked for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
“Two or four more years in office would’ve allowed him to strengthen his brand and develop a unique and compelling message to lead Kentucky or fill McConnell’s U.S. Senate seat.”
And still, a loss inevitably teaches a still-maturing candidate about the pressures and scrutiny of a high-profile race and how to make adjustments for next time.
Cameron’s personal likability within the party and the broad acknowledgement of the unique strength of the Beshear brand likely inoculates him from the bitter recriminations that follow many campaign disappointments.
Cameron’s most obvious play appears to be attempting to succeed McConnell, who he worked for in Washington.
While McConnell has vowed to finish his current term, he’ll be 84 when it ends in January 2027. The tight-lipped Senate GOP leader who has endured two freezing episodes over the summer could always pursue another six-year run, leaving an open-seat governorship in the fall 2027 as Cameron’s next best option.
There was speculation that if Cameron had secured the governorship, McConnell would be more comfortable relinquishing his Senate seat in the coming months if his health deteriorated any further.
In that scenario, a trusted GOP ally would choose his replacement.
With Beshear still in the saddle, a McConnell vacancy prior to the 2026 election would likely spark an intense legal fight over Beshear’s choice of a replacement and the legislature’s authority to force the governor into choosing a Republican.
The race to replace McConnell and succeed Beshear will each likely trigger Republican primary fights in Kentucky. Cameron also may look less invincible to circling ambitious rivals, such as Secretary of State Michael Adams, who used his victory speech Tuesday night to touch on issues far beyond administering elections, like public safety and social mobility.
Russell Coleman, who will succeed Cameron as attorney general, is another natural future contender for governor or U.S. Senate.
That’s not even considering the congressional delegation of Reps. Andy Barr, Thomas Massie and James Comer. Barr is seen as eyeing McConnell’s seat, Comer has long wanted to be governor and Massie is a complete wild card.
Cameron won’t likely be without stiffer primary competition during his next run. But ironically, the general election – against a non-Beshear Democrat – would be an easier campaign, given the state’s rightward drift.
“Kentuckians will absolutely see Daniel Cameron on the ballot again,” Rodriguez said. “He has a bright future. He’s young. He flexed his conservative bona fides. And he built a statewide network of support.”
He added, “To be successful, however, Cameron will need to broaden his message. He never quite seemed ready or comfortable offering a vision of his own for families, businesses, or the future.”
Correction: This article originally misreported Bill Clinton’s political history as having lost his first race for governor.
This story was originally published November 8, 2023 at 10:19 AM with the headline "After a bruising loss to Andy Beshear, what’s next for Daniel Cameron?."
