Democrats plan to target Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District as Republicans scoff
Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District is back in play for Democrats — at least, that’s what the leading campaign committee for U.S. House Democrats says.
Citing the prospect of Republican cuts to Medicaid, the cratering stock market and billionaire Elon Musk’s low popularity, the Democratic Campaign Caucus Committee has listed the Central Kentucky-based U.S. House district as one of their 35 Republican-held “Districts in Play” for the 2026 cycle.
Ever since 2018, when Rep. Andy Barr, R-KY, fended off Amy McGrath by three percentage points, Barr has won reelection in convincing fashion. But the committee, and many others in the state, believe that Barr will try to run for Senate next year.
Combined with a major Trump backlash, that could leave an opening for a Democrat, they argue.
“Andy Barr is running scared, and he should be. From tanking the economy, gutting Medicaid, abandoning our veterans, to making everything more expensive, he has broken his promises to Kentuckians, and it’s going to cost him his seat,” said Democratic Campaign Caucus Committee Chair Suzan Delbene, a Congresswoman from Washington State.
She added that the group is “already working to recruit authentic and battle-ready candidates in Kentucky.”
Republicans’ response is simple: Go ahead and waste your money.
The district is 52-46 in favor of Republicans, according to the elections analysis website Dave’s Redistricting. Barr won by almost 27 percentage points in 2024. In 2022, he won by 29, and in 2020, the last time he faced a well-funded opponent, he won by 17.
“I find it pretty funny that the Democrats are wasting time and money targeting Kentucky’s 6th District, considering it hasn’t been competitive since 2018. President Trump won the district with 57% of the vote in 2024, and Republicans have carried it by 25-plus points in each of the last two elections,” Republican Party of Kentucky spokesperson Andy Westberry wrote in a statement.
“My message to Democrats: Invest every dollar you’ve got in KY-06. You’ll still lose by double digits,” he added.
No Democrat has raised significant funds running against Barr since Josh Hicks, who tallied around $3 million but still lost to Barr by 17 percentage points in 2020.
The biggest data point in Democrats’ favor is that Gov. Andy Beshear leaned on the district to power his five-point reelection win over former attorney general Daniel Cameron. According to the Democratic Campaign Caucus Committee’s math, he won the district 60-40.
What counties are in 6th District?
Fayette County makes up about 44% of the district.
The other counties in the Sixth Congressional District, in order of population, are Madison, Scott, Jessamine, Montgomery, Woodford, Mercer, Bourbon, Garrard, Fleming, Estill, Powell and Nicholas. Aside from Fayette, the other counties in the district generally lean Republican.
The removal of Franklin County during the GOP-led 2022 redistricting effort disheartened Democrats. Home of the state capital and a large number of state workers, Franklin County is generally more Democrat-leaning than its other Central Kentucky peers.
Ben Chandler, a former attorney general whose family has deep ties to Kentucky politics, was the last Democrat to hold the seat. He represented the district for four terms before losing to Barr in 2012.
He told the Herald-Leader he is not interested in regaining his old seat. He thinks it’ll be an uphill battle for Democrats — he called the removal of Franklin County “gerrymandering” — but it’s possible if the national environment is right and anti-Trump sentiment is at a peak.
“If the Trump administration is dramatically unpopular, they certainly have a better opportunity in this district than they do in any other Republican district in Kentucky,” Chandler said.
“It boils down to: The timing’s got to be right, and you’ve got to have a good candidate. These races start with the candidate, and they turn on the candidate.”
Who might run?
If Barr does indeed run for Senate, all eyes will be on who steps up to the plate.
One Republican State Representative has already said he’ll do so: Rep. Ryan Dotson, R-Winchester. He told the Herald-Leader two months ago that was his plan.
“My family and I have already weighed this out and have made the decision to run, but we, of course, would want to make sure Andy comes out and commits to the Senate race first,” Dotson said.
Dotson has also written several social media posts sharing this intention and posted videos with the caption “Dotson for US Congress.”
Other Republicans often mentioned as players for the seat include a laundry list of state legislators: Sen. Amanda Mays Bledsoe, R-Lexington; Rep. Deanna Gordon, R-Richmond; Rep. Matt Lockett, R-Nicholasville; and Sen. Donald Douglas, R-Nicholasville.
Killian Timoney, a former GOP representative in Lexington and Nicholasville, agreed with the Republican party that Democrats putting much oomph behind a run would be “wasted energy.”
But some of that assessment is based on who he believes will be the GOP nominee. He called Bledsoe, who served on the Lexington-Fayette Urban County Council before joining the Senate in 2022, the “class entry” in the potential primary.
“She is an expert tactician when it comes to good policy. I mean, she’s a savage. She doesn’t take on little rinky-dink issues. She takes on the complicated ones, and she sees them all the way through. There are a lot of really good potential candidates, but if you’re asking my opinion of who the class entry is on that one, it’s definitely Amanda. I don’t think there’s a Democrat out there that could beat her,” Timoney said.
That’s not what Democrats believe.
Former state representative Cherlynn Stevenson, who was narrowly ousted by Rep. Vanessa Grossl, R-Georgetown, sounds interested.
She told the Herald-Leader in a statement that she’s “received several calls” from friends and community leaders at recent anti-Trump rallies to run for the seat.
“There’s a real sense in Central Kentucky that people want servant leaders who won’t kowtow to unelected billionaires that indiscriminately fire veterans and strip away healthcare from our most vulnerable Americans. I grew up in Knott County, where we are raised to fight for what’s right. Whether I run for Congress or not, I’ll always be ready to stand up and fight for what we believe,” Stevenson wrote.
Though Timoney was insistent in his assessment that a Democrat would not win the Sixth Congressional District, he equivocated when asked about the prospect of Rocky Adkins, the former Democratic House leader and current senior advisor to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.
“Rocky is solid. I don’t think Rocky’s going to run for Congress, though. I think he’s going to run for governor,” Timoney said. “He’s the biggest Democratic name in the state, as far as, I think, ability to win a seat… I don’t mean to discredit anyone, but if you’re talking Democrats, you’re talking Rocky.”
Adkins’ roots are in Eastern Kentucky’s Fifth Congressional District, but much of the Central Kentucky region is full of Appalachian transplants. In 2019, he came close to defeating Beshear in the Democratic primary, winning the vast majority of Eastern Kentucky and splitting Central Kentucky.
A spokesperson for Adkins did not respond to a recent request for comment on this specific race, but wrote previously that he’s received a lot of encouragement to run for office. Multiple Democrats have encouraged him to run for the U.S. Senate seat opening up due to Sen. Mitch McConnell’s departure that same year.
Kentucky Democratic Party Executive Director Morgan Eaves, a former city councilwoman in Richmond, has not denied interest in the role when previously contacted. Party chair Colmon Elridge is also often mentioned by the state’s political class as a potential candidate.
Two prominent Lexingtonians who have sought the seat in the past are also ones to watch: Senate Minority Caucus Chair Reggie Thomas, D-Lexington, and Transportation Secretary Jim Gray, who was previously Lexington mayor.
This story was originally published April 8, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
