KY Politics Insider: Booker poll claims US Senate race within striking distance
Kentucky Politics Insider provides an analytical view of Kentucky politics and the conversations that drive decisions. Email me at ahorn@herald-leader.com or ping me on any one of the various social media sites with tips or comments
A new poll from Charles Booker’s Democratic primary campaign for U.S. Senate could provide some hope for Democrats if they’re willing to overlook the results of the last several general elections.
Conducted with 650 Kentucky voters in mid-December, the survey from Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling pegged both Booker and Amy McGrath — the two most recent candidates, who lost by large margins in 2022 and 2020 — as comfortably behind a generic Republican candidate. Booker trailed with 36% compared to the GOP’s 50%, and McGrath had 35% to the generic Republican’s 51%.
That changes when the pollster asked voters if they’d support Booker versus specific GOP frontrunners.
Against Daniel Cameron, the former attorney general and current leader in the polls, Booker trailed 39% to 46%.
The gap widened against Rep. Andy Barr and narrowed against Lexington tech entrepreneur Nate Morris. Barr led Booker 49% to 38%, and Morris was leading by just one point, 41% to 40%.
The poll did not compare McGrath, or any of the other four Democratic candidates running professional campaigns, directly to any other GOP candidates. Those other Democrats include Lexington attorney Logan Forsythe; Louisville horse trainer Dale Romans; state House Minority Floor Leader Pamela Stevenson, D-Louisville; and Louisville ex-CIA officer Joel Willett.
Booker has taken heart in the results of the poll, which was commissioned by his campaign and performed by a pollster with an “A-” rating from elections analyst Nate Silver.
A poll from Public Policy Polling conducted Oct. 17-18, before Booker jumped in, found that 33% of 590 likely primary voters said they’d vote for Booker if the field was McGrath, Booker, Forsythe, Stevenson and Willett. McGrath had 30% support in that poll, while the other candidates tested were in low single digits.
In a post to social media soliciting donations, he encouraged followers: “Don’t sleep on Kentucky.”
“New polling came out that shows that we are within single digits of the Republican frontrunner already. That means not only is this race winnable with the right candidate, but as a progressive voice standing with people from the hood to the holler, I am that candidate, and we can win,” Booker said.
Recent history for Booker specifically, and other Democrats, would suggest that’s a tough sell.
Booker lost to Sen. Rand Paul in 2022 by almost 24 percentage points. McGrath fell to McConnell in 2020 by 20 points despite raising an historic amount of money.
No Kentucky Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race since the late Wendell Ford’s reelection in 1992. No Democrat has even come close to winning since Daniel Mongiardo in 2004, when he lost to late Sen. Jim Bunning by 1.4 percentage points.
It also appears that the poll respondents might be slightly skewed toward Democrats. About 59% said they voted for Trump and 35% said they voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. That’s close to Harris’ result in the election (34%) but shortchanges Trump’s total (64%).
Morris Turning Point speech
Speaking of Nate Morris, the GOP candidate got a chance to make his case on one of the biggest stages in conservative politics: Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest Conference.
Morris was a day two speaker at the conference, held in Phoenix. Turning Point USA, a campus conservative group led by the late Charlie Kirk, has grown into one of the most influential right wing organizations in the country. Morris was the last candidate to be endorsed by Kirk, who headlined the candidate’s kickoff rally.
Morris introduced himself on Dec. 19 as the candidate “to replace Mitch McConnell once and for all for the United States Senate,” and mentioned that Kirk struck a very similar chord in voicing support for Morris. He also highlighted the fact, as he has previously, that Vice President JD Vance urged him to run.
“He came to Kentucky for me and for our campaign because he knew that this was the most important Senate race in the United States this cycle. As he would say many times, Mitch McConnell is the final boss for MAGA to defeat in the Bluegrass State,” Morris said.
Topics also included in Morris’ speech: his support for a moratorium on immigration, his opposition to U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ending the filibuster in the U.S. Senate, his advocacy for a balanced budget and his positioning as a Washington outsider. He added that he only intends to serve two terms, “then I’d be done.”
Morris ended by vowing “to win this race for Charlie Kirk,” and asking attendees to volunteer or contribute to his campaign.
Massie’s latest Epstein push
Rep. Thomas Massie is not happy with the Department of Justice’s implementation of his law requiring release of the full investigative files into Jeffrey Epstein.
Hefty redactions in the millions of files released by the DOJ have incensed Massie, who is now calling for congressional action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.
The Northern Kentucky congressman, who has amassed a following of 1.5 million on social media platform X, wrote that Bondi is “breaking the law.”
“Epstein survivors aren’t satisfied with the DOJ’s incomplete and redacted Epstein files disclosures, and neither am I. Congress should assert its ability to hold Bondi in ‘inherent contempt’ to get justice for the survivors,” Massie wrote.
This marks the latest in a long saga of conflict between Massie and the Trump administration. Massie spoke out against, and voted in opposition of, Trump’s marquee budget bill. He has criticized the administration’s bombing of a nuclear site in Iran. Trump is supporting a GOP primary challenger, Ed Gallrein, against Massie in 2026.
During a press conference last week, Trump cast Massie’s push on the files as a gift to Democrats trying to steal attention away from GOP successes that will hurt “people that innocently met Jeffrey Epstein.”
“They are highly respected bankers and lawyers and others. And they will end up, because of guys like Massie, who’s a real low life, whose polls are down to about 9%, by the way, in the state of Kentucky,” Trump said. “If you look at Kentucky, Kentucky’s a great place. I don’t know, people in there that are very strange in terms of leadership.
“Massie is a loser, and he likes it, and he works with the Democrats. He’s just being used by the Democrats, because what this whole thing is with Epstein is a way of trying to deflect from the tremendous success that the Republican Party has.”
