New KY Senate poll: Barr shows lead among GOP, Booker solidifies Dem lead
The latest independent poll of Kentucky’s U.S. Senate primary races shows GOP Rep. Andy Barr beginning to claim a lead and former Democratic candidate Charles Booker solidifying his own.
On the Republican side, the poll was conducted March 29-31 among 598 likely voters. About 28% of those voters favored Barr, 21% said they’d vote for former attorney general Daniel Cameron and 15% responded they were backing Lexington tech entrepreneur Nate Morris. About 29% of voters were undecided.
The results, from Emerson College and Lexington TV station Fox56, are not far from what the same the pollster found in a survey conducted two months ago, Jan. 31-Feb. 2. In that poll, Cameron’s number was the same, Morris’ result was one point lower and Barr’s total was four points lower.
Republican undecideds have decreased nine points since the first poll, falling from 38% to 29%.
Though all the three leading Republican candidates have tied themselves to President Donald Trump, who won Kentucky in 2024 by more than 30 percentage points, the poll suggests Barr may be doing it the most effectively. When respondents were asked which candidate they think “will be most supportive of the Trump administration’s agenda,” 38% said Barr, compared to 22% for Cameron and 21% for Morris.
So far, the television ad war to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell has been entirely a two-man race between Barr and Morris, both with major campaign war chests and outside groups supporting them. Barr has raised the most from individuals, while Morris has largely self-funded and received a big assist from Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, for a PAC supporting him.
By contrast, Cameron has reported raising relatively little thus far, and no major outside spending group has entered the race on his behalf. Though groups backing Barr and Morris have launched fierce attacks against each other, no one has hit Cameron with a negative ad.
The poll asked Democratic likely voters who they’d pick for U.S. Senate. Former U.S. Senate candidate Charles Booker increased his lead among those voters compared to the previous poll, jumping from 30% to 36%. Former U.S. House and Senate candidate Amy McGrath moved from 19% to 18%; and House Minority Floor Leader Pamela Stevenson, D-Louisville, dropped from 4% to 3%.
Undecideds are still relatively high in the Democratic race, moving from 43% to 38% in the late March poll.
As of Thursday morning, the full poll results were not released to gauge support for other Democratic candidates like Louisville horse trainer Dale Romans and Lexington attorney Logan Forsythe, as well as Republican support for Elizabethtown businessman Michael Faris.
Emerson College is a well-respected pollster. The Silver Bulletin, a site run by data guru Nate Silver, gave Emerson College an “A” in its ratings of American pollsters.
On Feb. 4, another independent poll from Quantus Insights found Barr and Cameron in a dead heat, with Barr at 28% and Cameron at 27%. Morris had 16% support in the poll. Quantus Insights is generally less respected than Emerson; the Silver Bulletin gives it a “B/C” grade.
A March 10-12 poll from Public Opinion Strategies, sponsored by the pro-Barr Keep America Great PAC, found Cameron with a slight lead. It pegged the former AG with 31% support, Barr at 29% and Morris with 13%.
