First KY-04 poll: Massie has lead, not majority, over Trump-endorsed Gallrein
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story referenced a poll posted Wednesday on Quantus Insights’ website. That poll was later taken down, and a final version was posted Thursday morning with slightly different numbers. The story reflects those findings.
The first independent, public poll of GOP voters in Kentucky’s much-anticipated 4th Congressional District primary, released Thursday, shows Rep. Thomas Massie with a nine-point lead, but not quite a majority, over a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Quantus Insights conducted a survey of more than 400 likely Republican voters April 6-7 and found that, of 438 likely voters, 46.8% would vote for Massie if the election were held today, compared with 37.7% who responded they’d vote for Ed Gallrein, the Shelby County military veteran who has touted Trump’s endorsement in his campaign.
About 14% of poll respondents said they were undecided; 1.5% said they would not vote. The poll was conducted via text message. Its margin of error is +/- 4.4%.
Massie has represented the Northern Kentucky-centric district since being elected in 2012. Since then, he’s yet to face a well-funded primary challenger like Gallrein.
Last month, Trump campaigned with Gallrein at a rally in Northern Kentucky. He lit into Massie, who has defied Trump on a range of topics in the president’s second term — including his budget bill, the Epstein files, and foreign policy. Trump called Massie a loser and a “total disaster as a congressman, and, frankly, a human being.”
At the event, Trump brought Gallrein on stage and repeatedly called him an incredible candidate and a “real hero” for his military service.
Quantus Insights is somewhat less respected than top pollsters like Emerson College and The New York Times. The Silver Bulletin, a website run by data guru Nate Silver, gave Quantus Insights a “B/C” grade.
A recent Herald-Leader report detailed the sentiment of about a dozen GOP voters across the district of various political involvement levels. Some voters knew little about either Gallrein or Massie.
Though it was later taken down, an earlier version of the poll was posted early Thursday evening showing Massie with a slightly bigger lead — 47.4% to Gallrein’s 36.8%. Jason Corley, Quantus Insights’ top pollster, explained the early post on X, writing Thursday evening that a file they were testing “made its way on the production side.”
In the updated poll, Massie’s name recognition was still significantly higher than Gallrein’s, with only 2.3% of voters not having an opinion on him, compared with 21.9% who did not have an opinion about Gallrein.
About 51.4% of the respondents had a favorable view of Massie, compared with 46.4% who had an unfavorable view of the incumbent congressman. Voters generally had solid opinions on him, with 29.2% saying their views were “strongly unfavorable” and 28.8% responding “strongly favorable.”
For Gallrein, 39.4% of respondents had a favorable view of him, and 38.7% had an unfavorable view. Around 24.7% of voters said their opinion of him was “strongly unfavorable,” and 20.8% said their view was “strongly favorable.”
Voters generally responded positively to Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, but it wasn’t exactly blockbuster news. Of 398 who answered a question on whether Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to support Gallrein, almost as many people responded “no difference” (36%) as did those who said it made them more likely to pick Gallrein (36.5%).
Of those who said it made them more likely to support Gallrein, 24.4% said “much more likely” and 12.1% were “somewhat more likely.”
More than 26% of respondents said the endorsement news made them less likely to back Gallrein — 22% “much less likely” and 4.2% “somewhat less likely.”
When asked to pick between two statements on their view of how a Republican member of Congress should act, one prioritizing independence and the other putting loyalty to Trump first, more respondents picked independence.
Just under 50% of voters picked this statement: “I would rather support a Republican member of Congress who votes independently and stands by his principles, even when he disagrees with President Trump.”
Comparatively, 37.4% of the respondents sided with this statement: “I would rather support a Republican member of Congress who strongly supports President Trump and works closely with him in Congress.”
This story was originally published April 8, 2026 at 8:36 PM.
