After Massie’s loss, can a Democrat win Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District?
Melissa Strange believes she has two benefits heading into the November general election: her position as a “center-left” Democrat and incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie’s losing bid for reelection.
In the May 19 primary election for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, Strange easily secured the Democratic nomination with 72% of the votes, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s Office.
On the other side of the aisle, some Northern Kentucky Republicans aren’t happy that Trump-endorsed candidate Ed Gallrein defeated Massie, who has represented the district for nearly 14 years, in their party’s primary.
President Donald Trump targeted Massie for defeat because of a perceived lack of personal loyalty to the president, including voting against his “Big, Beautiful Bill” and spearheading the effort to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. Trump’s team and allies worked aggressively and spent $16 million to topple Massie — and they succeeded. Gallrein won 55% of the vote to Massie’s 45%.
But just because Gallrein secured the Republican nomination doesn’t mean he automatically earns support from Massie voters. Some have said online they will support Strange and plan to encourage others to do so.
“Melissa Strange will be getting my vote against Ed Gallrein,” social media user ”Ken from KY-O4” wrote on X. Another account said “every single independent and Massie voter in the district SHOULD vote for Melissa Strange.” Another widely viewed post predicted the district is “going to turn Blue.”
Others aren’t as eager to support a Democrat, including state Rep. TJ Roberts, R-Burlington, who said in an interview with the Herald-Leader he would “100% not be voting for a Democrat.”
Throughout his political career, Massie has developed a loyal base of support. He’s been a leader in the Liberty wing of the GOP in Northern Kentucky with close ties to area state lawmakers, like Roberts. And Massie’s principled contrarian streak, which at times has meant breaking with the Republican Party, has gained him fans — even as it made the president his top detractor.
So far, Massie has stayed out of the general election. He hasn’t endorsed Gallrein or told people to vote for Strange.
While Strange hopes her moderate approach and Massie’s loss will boost her chances of representing the district, the path for a Democrat could still have significant challenges. The last time Democrat who represented the district was former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas, who was elected in 1998 and left office in 2005. There are also over 100,000 more registered Republican voters in the district than Democrats, according to data from the Secretary of State’s Office.
Strange talks about her positions on issues
Strange has lived her entire life in Northern Kentucky. She grew up in Villa Hills, attended Northern Kentucky University for her bachelor’s degree and now lives in Erlanger with her family.
This is Strange’s first time running for office; she currently works as a supply chain director for a global nutrition and agribusiness company.
As someone with deep Kentucky roots, she decided to run because she felt like her community members’ voices weren’t being heard in Washington, D.C.
“I’ve been surrounded by many ... Republicans that I know and love dearly,” Strange said. “That’s most of my friends and family, and what I would always hear from them was that they were frustrated with the fact that Thomas Massie had a history of voting no on everything and not necessarily voting for anything that was bringing help in the things that we needed to our district.
“I felt like if they had an alternative to that, they would be willing to consider voting for a Democrat who was wanting to actually go out there and go to Washington and fight for the things for that we need in this district.”
One example Strange gave was when Massie voted against the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which ended up becoming law. At the time, Massie said he voted ‘no’ because the trillion-dollar package would exacerbate inflation and opposed a “kill switch” mandate, which would require automakers to install passive impairment monitoring systems in new vehicles.
The legislation also provided $1.6 billion in federal grants for the Brent Spence Bridge Corridor Project, which Strange said is the “most important piece of infrastructure” in the district. The busy stretch of highway between Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati is one of the nation’s most important trucking and freight corridors.
“No one had been able to get ... any funding to finally do something about it until that bill, and even Mitch McConnell voted in favor of it, but (Massie) voted no, and that frustrated a lot of people in this district because that bridge is critical,” Strange said.
Heading into the general election, Strange is campaigning on affordability, healthcare and “restoring sort of some balance and accountability to our government.” She joined Take BAC Congress, which is a coalition of U.S. congressional candidates who support implementing term limits, overturning Citizens United, putting a moratorium on lobbying, banning stock trading for members of Congress and creating a code of judicial ethics for the U.S. Supreme Court.
“One of the things I’m most passionate about is really restoring what’s broken in government,” Strange said. “I think we’re all tired of what we’re watching happen and the dysfunction that we see day in and day out.”
Is Massie’s loss a boost for her chances of winning?
Strange said she would welcome and appreciate the vote of any Massie supporter who wants to back her on Election Day.
“I understand their frustration, because I do feel like basically there were ... a few wealthy, powerful people who decided they were going to try to buy that seat out from under him,” Strange said. “(Massie) voted his conscience, and he did what he thought was right, and he was an independent thinker. That’s what we all feel we need in Congress, is somebody who does that, just maybe that’s a little bit more aligned with what we want happening.”
Strange views Massie’s loss as a potential boon for her campaign, saying earning some of his supporters’ votes is a “nice first step” to garnering Republican support in a red district.
“If you look at the demographic data of the district, it’s definitely more heavily Republican, so obviously if you’re going to win the district, you’re going to have to get Republicans to vote for you...” she said. “If Massie supporters, or some portion of them, are willing to support me and willing to give me a chance, that starts to help me chip away at that number that I need to essentially flip.”
As of April, there are 311,005 registered Republican voters and 205,370 registered Democratic voters in the district, according to data from the Secretary of State’s Office.
Strange considers herself a center-left Democrat and believes she has a “realistic approach” as someone who works in business. She said she knows how important it is to compromise and doesn’t believe everything has to be an “all or nothing” mindset.
An example she gave is universal healthcare. While Strange said she doesn’t disagree with “Medicare for All,” she’d want to be realistic about how to implement it.
“That’s a future state we may very well decide we need to work toward, and I don’t disagree with that,” Strange said. “But I don’t think it’s something you can do overnight because there will be too much of a downstream ripple effect that will affect other people’s lives in ways we can’t anticipate, and we need to think it through.”
In a political climate that’s become increasingly polarized, Strange said her position is more appealing for the district instead of a more progressive and far-left leaning Democrat. She said she thinks there are more voters in the middle of the political spectrum who want things that are “practical and reasonable” instead of extreme.
“We have to be willing to give a little bit to be able to make progress and move forward,” Strange said. “Even though maybe my theoretical ideal state might sometimes be more left, I also understand the importance of moderation and working across the aisle and in being able to be more centered in that respect.”
Others skeptical about a Democrat winning the district
Not all Massie voters are willing to cross party lines, including Roberts.
Roberts said he would never “urge anyone” to vote for a Democrat. He added, though, no one is entitled to anyone’s vote and believes Gallrein needs to start talking about his stances on issues, including abortion policy and gun control.
At Gallrein’s election night watch party at Wenzel Distillery in Covington, his supporters and staffers didn’t have a lot to say about Gallrein’s ambitions in Congress if he wins the general election, besides supporting Trump and the MAGA agenda.
Roberts said if Gallrein doesn’t become “more transparent” on the issues, then he believes it will be a closer race between him and Strange.
The last Democrat who challenged Massie was Matthew Lehman in 2022, but Massie won the general election with 65% of the vote.
“I’m hopeful that he will come out and put forward like just firm platforms of saying, ‘hey, this is where I stand on these issues. These are the types of bills I intend to introduce. These are the types of things that, if they come up, I’m going to vote no,’” Roberts said.
“I will tell you this: I would be uncomfortable asking someone for their vote if I was not willing to tell them where I stand on an issue.”
There’s one more factor Roberts mentioned that could make it a competitive race: if a strong independent files to run in the district.
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky has endorsed and is working to get Jeremy Todd on the November ballot. To appear on the ballot, any independent, political group or political organization candidate must file a petition with 5,000 signatures from voters in the district by June 2.
“I hope the Republican Party can come together, because as I’ve said before, the Republican Party is far superior to the Democratic Party,” Roberts said. “With that said, every voter has their own threshold about when someone earns their vote, and they have to make that call about what they want to do, and candidates have to act accordingly in order to earn the threshold number of votes.”
