Will Trump, Harris bring out Kentucky voters in 2024? What to expect from turnout
The 2024 presidential election is only about three weeks away, and Kentucky’s voter rolls have closed ahead of the Tuesday, Nov. 5 contest.
Voters will confront a number of issues aside from the presidential matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, including medical cannabis ballot measures in some areas and two statewide constitutional amendments.
To help preview the Nov. 5 election, we spoke to Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams, the state’s top election official, for his turnout predictions and what’s most likely to push Kentuckians to polls. Results from previous elections also offer a few clues.
Kentuckians largely prefer to vote in person on Election Day
In the spring of 2020, Kentucky mainly focused on its response to the coronavirus pandemic. The commonwealth reported its first case of COVID-19 March 6, 2020, and by late April, the case count had grown to almost 4,000.
The pandemic ultimately forced Kentucky to delay its May primary election by five weeks. It also spurred Adams and Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to work together on a bipartisan agreement to expand access to the polls, including eligibility for absentee voting.
As a result, 75% of the voters in the June 2020 primary voted absentee, Adams said. That included 60% of Republican voters, a voting bloc traditionally more skeptical of vote-by-mail and early voting options.
“Three-fifths of Republican primary voters in that election voted by absentee ballot, which to me that’s pretty darn remarkable,” Adams said.
In the general election that year, 45% of the vote was cast in person during the then-three weeks of early voting, with the rest roughly split between absentee and in-person voting on Election Day, according to Adams.
“I really thought that once voters got a taste of absentee voting, we’d see more of them voting that way,” Adams said.
But so far, for Kentucky voters at least, the pandemic seems to be a blip rather than a foretelling. In the elections since, absentee voting has seen a dramatic decline. During the 2023 gubernatorial election, it only made up about 2% of the overall vote, according to Adams.
“Easily the vast majority of Republicans — but also the vast majority of Democrats — voted on Election Day” in 2023, Adams said.
Fayette County reflects that trend. Most voters here preferred to vote on Election Day in 2023.
There could be several reasons why, from habit to the convenience of more polling places available. For others it’s about seeing how the election is run or meeting up with neighbors.
“In the rural areas, people want to wait in line,” Adams said. “They want to stand in a line and chit chat with their neighbors.”
Independents remain Kentucky’s fastest growing voter bloc
Continuing a trend seen in 2023 and 2022, more Kentuckians are drifting away from the Republican and Democratic parties and registering as independents, with their share of the electorate now reaching 11%. The majority are young, between the ages of 18 and 29, and they tend to be first-time voters, according to Adams.
While this might seem like an attractive voting bloc for candidates to tap, Adams notes it’s still easier for a Democratic candidate to peel off Republican votes and vice versa.
“The big question is ‘are they going to vote or not?,’” Adams said. “In November of last year, on paper, independents were 10% of the electorate…but they were only 6% of the voters.”
Independents are also locked out of Kentucky’s closed party primaries, meaning they aren’t able to exert a moderating influence on candidates.
“Unless and until independents actually organize, engage, really make themselves the factor in elections, then unfortunately our political system is going to cater more to the margins instead of to the center,” Adams said.
Several factors could drive voter turnout in November
Kentucky primary elections tend to draw voter turnout between 10 to 15%, while presidential elections always see a much higher percentage, typically more than 50%, according to Adams.
The secretary of state’s office hasn’t made any official turnout projections yet, but there are several factors that could boost it this year, Adams said.
“Obviously, you’ve got a presidential race, and that draws people out,” Adams said. “No. 2, you’ve got these medical cannabis local option elections around the state. Is that going to bring people out, either for or against medical cannabis?”
A pair of state constitutional amendments, including one that would allow public money to go to private schools, drive people to the polls.
“I personally don’t think that the turnout is going to be higher than four years ago. I think it will be a little lower,” Adams said. “We’re all kind of watching and waiting to see the tea leaves be revealed.”
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