Kentucky is about to hit its peak of daily COVID-19 deaths, university model projects

The most widely-cited projection model for the spread of COVID-19 predicts Kentucky will see its peak number of deaths on Sunday, but will begin a downward trend in the number of daily deaths at the end of the month.

The model predicts a total of 466 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, a significant decrease from its earlier predictions. In late March, it predicted a total of 815 deaths.

Rather than a single, highest-day peak, the model uses an overall trend to determine the peak number of deaths for every state. Kentucky is in the midst of a plateau with a high number of deaths every day for the next several days, according to the model.

Over the next two weeks, the model predicts the state will see at least 10 deaths every day. The figures were last updated on Tuesday.

Several other modeling systems exist, but the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is one of the most attributed. Researchers regularly update their predictions based on the types of control measures implemented by the states, including mass gathering restrictions and the closure of non-essential businesses.

The model also uses mobile phone data from technology companies like Google to track how people across the country are following social distancing protocols, though the institute cautioned that has drawbacks, including that it may not reflect the actions of the entire population.

Gov. Andy Beshear has implemented four of the six control measures cited by the researchers, but the Democratic governor has yet to issue a stay-at-home order or to severely limit travel. He has urged Kentuckians to remain “healthy at home” and to not travel unless absolutely necessary.

Researchers at IHME predict Kentucky is two days away from its peak resource use at hospitals, with a peak use of 508 beds and 117 ICU beds on Friday. Kentucky will have a surplus of both, according to the model.

That piece of data is also considerably more optimistic than the model’s previous predictions. In late March, it predicted the state would need 1,561 beds for patients suffering from COVID-19. It put the number of used ICU beds at 234.

It will take until June 11 before the model says social distancing in Kentucky can be relaxed, and only if it is coupled with increased testing, contact tracing and strict limits on crowd sizes.

On Tuesday, Beshear said he believed Kentucky has hit a plateau with regard to the number of new cases reported each day, with a three-day average of 184.

Beshear has said he wants to see a 14-day decrease in the number of new cases or the rate of new cases — as testing expands, the rate of positive cases may decrease even as the total number of cases increases — before Kentucky begins to relax social distancing measures.

Other states will be able to ease restrictions more quickly, according to the University of Washington model.

West Virginia will be able to implement more lenient restrictions between May 4 and May 10, and Ohio could ease restrictions between May 11 and May 17.

Of the seven states that border Kentucky, just two, Indiana and Illinois, have a lower projected rate of death among their entire populations.

The number of projected deaths in Kentucky will represent .000104 percent of its total population, while Indiana will lose .000138 and Illinois will lose .000165 percent, according to the model.

Of Kentucky’s border states, Ohio is expected to lose the lowest percentage of its population.

The number of total deaths is expected to be higher in both Virginia and Ohio, but their larger populations will allow the states to lose a lower percentage of people.

Estimates for the number of deaths across the country have also changed wildly in recent weeks, from an estimated 84,000 at the end of March to about 66,000 on Tuesday.

The data factor in levels of uncertainty. The total number of nationwide deaths could be as high as 124,000 or as low as 45,375. In Kentucky, estimates range from as low as 208 to as high as 1,284 deaths.

Details of projections from the federal government, retrieved by the Center for Public Integrity and published in partnership with National Public Radio, found that the government estimates 300,000 Americans could die if social distancing restrictions were immediately eliminated.

Federal officials used various scenarios to determine the likely number of deaths, including how transmissible the virus is and how likely asymptomatic patients are to transmit it.

A worst-case scenario put the number of deaths 1.81 million, but the government’s “best guess” scenario pointed to 302,000 deaths.

Four experts interviewed by the Center for Public Integrity said the “best guess” scenario was overly optimistic, while at least one said the figures were fairly on-target.

Juan Gutiérrez, a mathematician who creates models for the city of San Antonio, told the Center that the government’s models underestimate how contagious asymptomatic patients might be.

“This is just what a rookie would do,” Gutiérrez said.

The documents come as protesters converged in multiple states within the past week, including in Frankfort, to urge government officials to re-open their economies.

Beshear and Dr. Steven Stack, Kentucky’s public health commissioner, have criticized the protests last week and expressed concerns that the protesters could have spread the virus during their gatherings. The governor warned that Kentucky must meet certain benchmarks before the economy can begin to safely re-open.

“We do have some folks up here in Kentucky today — and everybody should be able to express their opinion — that believe we should re-open Kentucky immediately, right now,” Beshear said last week during a press conference, speaking over a chorus of protesters in the background. “Folks, that would kill people. It would absolutely kill people.”

This story was originally published April 22, 2020 at 3:39 PM.