Political Notebook: Which KY politicos might challenge Andy Beshear and Rand Paul?
It’s angling season in Kentucky politics.
With no elections in 2021, politicians are spending their time elbowing, jostling and positioning themselves for potential candidacies in 2022 and beyond.
The state legislature is in session, which gives ambitious politicians a chance to try and grab the spotlight — and gives the rumors about their aspirations the perfect conditions to spread.
Here’s the chatter.
A primary in Louisville?
U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Louisville, Kentucky’s lone Democrat in Congress, holds one of the most desirable seats for Louisville Democrats with dreams of political grandeur.
That means it’s no surprise there’s talk about whether Yarmuth, who is 73, is thinking about retirement.
“These rumors pop up every two years,” said Christopher Schuler, Yarmuth’s spokesman. “Not true.”
Yet, there still seems to be some angling going on in Louisville. In December, there was a post to the Grassroots Analytics Campaigns Job Board seeking applications for a campaign manager for a “Kentucky Candidate for U.S. Representative.”
Yarmuth’s office says he already has a campaign manager.
State Rep. Attica Scott, who has hinted that she’s considering a run in 2022, said it wasn’t her either. But in a post on Facebook last week, Scott noted that there’s never been a Black woman representing Kentucky in Congress (there hasn’t been a Black man, either) and said “we can change that.”
If Yarmuth isn’t retiring, that would mean a Democratic primary. Scott won her seat in the House of Representatives in 2016 after beating longtime State Rep. Thomas Riner in a primary, but said she would only run for Congress if Yarmuth was retiring and “the people wanted me to run.”
There isn’t a lot of room to beat Yarmuth to the left, as he’s one of the more progressive members of Congress, and it would be difficult to beat him in terms of influence, as Yarmuth is the chairman of the influential House Budget Committee. But wilder things have happened in a primary.
Plus, we still don’t know the mystery person who’s looking for a campaign manager.
The race against Rand Paul
It is very likely that former state Rep. Charles Booker will seek the Democratic nomination to run against U.S. Sen. Rand Paul in 2022.
Booker may have lost the Democratic primary against Amy McGrath last June, but he earned the enthusiastic support of many Democrats with a late surge in the primary. After McGrath lost to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell by 20 percentage points in November, some Democrats wondered out-loud whether Booker would have stood a better chance.
But Booker raised eyebrows among some Kentucky Democrats when he served as more of a headache than an ally for McGrath’s campaign in the general election. He offered her a tepid endorsement, but neither he nor his most ardent supporters fully came around to supporting McGrath by November.
His decision to spurn McGrath probably won’t affect the electorate, but it does affect the internal politics of a Democratic primary.
Booker did not respond to a request for comment.
Already there’s talk that Christian Motley, a staffer for former Gov. Steve Beshear and former President Barack Obama, is strongly considering the race.
He said he’s had people ask him to consider a run.
“While I haven’t made a decision yet, I’m seriously thinking about all of my options and hope to have a final decision in the coming months,” Motley said.
Motley has launched two failed bids for the Lexington-Fayette Urban County Council, but showed an ability to raise money in both. Of course, raising money for a city council race is a lot different than raising money for a U.S. Senate race, particularly when Booker was able to build a fundraising base after his meteoric rise last spring.
There also are rumors that former University of Kentucky basketball star Rex Chapman, who toured the state for McGrath’s campaign, might take a look at running for office.
Chapman said he has no current plans to run for office “but the more I watch Rand Paul betray this country and its values, the more tempted I am to do it.”
“Kentuckians need someone to shine a spotlight on the real Rand,” Chapman said.
With lingering bad blood between the McGrath and Booker camps, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if anyone running against Booker in a primary ends up with McGrath’s lengthy donor list.
An end to Andy?
Republicans largely see Gov. Andy Beshear’s 2019 gubernatorial victory as an anomaly — he was running against an historically unpopular candidate in former Gov. Matt Bevin, who picked fights with Republicans and Democrats alike.
After Republicans won big in Kentucky in 2020, many are now eyeing the governor’s mansion, predicting that Beshear will be ripe to oust when he runs for re-election in 2023.
It’s an open secret in Frankfort that Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles is strongly considering a run. Quarles has been encouraged to run, according to his spokesman, Sean Southard, but has not yet made a decision.
He’s likely not alone.
U.S. Rep. Jamie Comer is frequently mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but recently became the ranking member on the House Oversight and Reform committee, which has political power in D.C.
“In only four years, he has leapfrogged just about every Republican in Congress to become the Republican leader of the most high-profile committee in the House, so that would be hard to give up,” said Comer spokesman Matt Smith. “I guess time will tell.”
Often, there are rumors before a primary of a wealthy person who’s never run for office who is eyeing the race (see Matt Bevin, Hal Heiner, Greg Fischer).
Kelly Knight Craft, the Kentucky Republican mega-donor who became U.N. Ambassador and Ambassador to Canada in the Trump administration, fits that mold.
While there’s a debate in the Republican Party over how to move forward in the post-Trump era, it’s unclear whether that would have any impact on Craft, particularly in a state that overwhelmingly supported the former president.
There’s also speculation about Auditor Mike Harmon and Treasurer Allison Ball (the only Republican woman to be elected statewide in Kentucky twice), as well as state Rep. Savannah Maddox, who has risen to prominence among the right-wing faction of the party as an ardent opponent of Beshear’s COVID-19 restrictions.
This race will mark the first time since 1995 that a gubernatorial candidate will not have to pick their running mate before filing. Under a new law passed in 2020, a gubernatorial candidate won’t have to name their running mate until after the primary.
U.S. Attorney
There has been a push among many Democrats in the state House and Democratic donors in Eastern Kentucky for Beshear to name former state Rep. Chris Harris, D-Pikeville, to the position of U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of Kentucky. Harris said he would be interested in the job and that he’s honored to be considered.
There also has been speculation about whether Kerry Harvey, who held the position during the Obama administration, might get the job again.
But even with that political pressure, the most common name mentioned for the role is La Tasha Buckner, Beshear’s chief of staff. If she were to get the job, Buckner would be the first Black woman to be U.S. Attorney in Kentucky.
Buckner and Harvey did not respond to requests for comment.
While President Joe Biden will nominate the U.S. Attorneys for Kentucky, it is ultimately up to the U.S. Senate to confirm them. That gives Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a large say in the matter.
McConnell’s office has sent a letter to Biden recommending Democrat Tom Wine, a commonwealths attorney in Jefferson County, for the Western District and Ron Walker, an assistant U.S. Attorney, or Larry Roberts, the Fayette County Attorney, in the Eastern District.
This story was originally published January 29, 2021 at 3:55 PM.
