Chances are good that Kentucky will see a warmer, wetter winter, forecasters project
There’s a greater chance of warmer temperatures and above normal precipitation this winter in Kentucky in what could shape up to be Kentucky’s third consecutive La Niña, the colder counterpart of El Niño.
That’s according to the December through February weather outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which is leaning toward above normal temperatures and precipitation for the coming winter.
“This outlook is in line with the expectation of La Niña conditions this winter, which tend to support a warmer and wetter than normal winter for the Ohio Valley,” Tom Reaugh, the lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Louisville, wrote Thursday in an email to the Lexington Herald-Leader.
According to Reaugh, there’s greater a chance for increase precipitation than temperature.
Another La Niña event would have historic implications for the state, Reaugh added.
“If we do have a La Niña this winter, it will be the third consecutive winter with La Niña conditions. Since 1950 that has happened only twice before: 1998/99 - 2000/01 and 1973/74 - 1975/76,” Reaugh wrote in his emailed comments.
What does the NWS Climate Prediction Center base its outlook on?
The center’s forecasters look at what the chances are for a particular outcome to be above normal conditions, below normal conditions or whether it has an equal chance of going either way.
For any particular location and season, these three categories are defined from 30 observations between 1981 and 2010, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
The coldest or driest 10 years define the “below normal” category, the warmest or wettest 10 years define the “above normal” category and the remaining years in between define the middle category.
“When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 33.33% to that category, and label the map with an ‘A’ in the center of the region of enhanced probabilities,” according to the NWS Climate Prediction Center.
What kind of winter is Kentucky likely to experience?
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal temperature outlook, issued Aug. 18, shows that Kentucky is leaning toward above normal temperatures from December to February — roughly between a 33% and 40% chance.
For precipitation, the center’s outlook is signaling above normal levels, especially for the northern swath of the state. The probability of above normal precipitation in northern Kentucky is between 40% and 50%.
What is the Farmers’ Almanac predicting for winter 2023?
The Farmers’ Almanac, a periodical first published in 1818, is calling for “unreasonably cold” and snowy weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region, which includes Kentucky.
In its 2022-23 extended winter weather forecast, it makes predictions like “the first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s,” and it tells readers to get ready to “shake, shiver and shovel!”
Though the Farmers’ Almanac claims an accuracy of 80%, most scientific analyses show an accuracy rate of only 50%.